Effect of heat and humidity on the incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 pandemic in European countries

Abstract

Objective: The weather allied conditions have an impact on air, water, soil, food, ecosystem, feelings, behaviors, and pattern of health and disease. The present study aims to investigate the impact of heat and humidity on the daily basis incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 pandemic in European countries.

Materials and methods: We selected 10 European countries, Russia, United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Germany, Turkey, France, Belgium, Netherlands and Belarus. This region has a relatively low temperature and high humidity, and has homogenous European ethnicity with almost similar socioeconomic culture and health care system. The data on COVID-19 pandemic including daily new cases and new deaths were recorded from World Health Organization (WHO). The information on daily temperature and humidity was obtained from world climate web "Time and Date". The daily cases, deaths, temperature and humidity were recorded from the date of appearance of first case of "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)" in the European region, from Jan 27, 2020 to July 17, 2020.

Results: In 10 European countries, (Russia, United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Germany, Turkey, France, Belgium, Netherlands and Belarus), the daily basis mean temperature from Jan 27, 2020 to July 17, 2020 was 17.07±0.18°C, and humidity was 54.78±0.47%. The overall results revealed a significant inverse correlation between humidity and the number of cases (r= -0.134, p<0.001) and deaths (r= -0.126, p<0.001). Moreover, an increase in temperature was linked with an increase in the number of cases (r=0.062, p=0.013) and deaths (r=0.118, p<0.001). The regression analysis results further revealed that with an increase of 1% humidity the number of cases (β = -15.90, p<0.001) and deaths (β=-1.56, p<0.001) reduced significantly. Whereas, with an increase of 1°C in temperature the number of cases (β = 20.65, p<0.001) and deaths (β = 3.71, p<0.001) increased significantly.

Conclusions: Increase in relative humidity was associated with a decrease in the number of daily cases and deaths, however, a rise in temperature was allied with an upsurge in the number of daily cases and daily deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic in European countries. The study findings on weather events and COVID-19 pandemic have an impact at European regional levels to project the incidence and mortality trends with regional weather events to enhance public health readiness and assist in planning to fight against this pandemic situation.