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. 2020 Sep 21:53:e20200469.
doi: 10.1590/0037-8682-0469-2020. eCollection 2020.

Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

Raphael Mendonça Guimarães  1 , Mônica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Magalhães  2 , Diego Ricardo Xavier  2 , Raphael de Freitas Saldanha  2 , Rafael de Castro Catão  3
Affiliations

Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

Raphael Mendonça Guimarães et al. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. .

Abstract

Introduction: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists.

Methods: We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities.

Results: All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase.

Conclusions: Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest: There are no financial or other relationships of any of the authors of the manuscript that could lead to any conflict of interest.

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