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Meta-Analysis
. 2021 Jan;160(1):378-402.e22.
doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2020.07.066. Epub 2020 Sep 23.

Predicting Outcomes in Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis for Management Optimization: Systematic Review and Consensus Statements From the Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease-Ahead Program

Esther Orlanski-Meyer  1 , Martine Aardoom  2 , Amanda Ricciuto  3 , Dan Navon  1 , Nicholas Carman  4 , Marina Aloi  5 , Jiri Bronsky  6 , Jan Däbritz  7 , Marla Dubinsky  8 , Séamus Hussey  9 , Peter Lewindon  10 , Javier Martin De Carpi  11 , Víctor Manuel Navas-López  12 , Marina Orsi  13 , Frank M Ruemmele  14 , Richard K Russell  15 , Gabor Veres  16 , Thomas D Walters  3 , David C Wilson  17 , Thomas Kaiser  18 , Lissy de Ridder  2 , Anne Griffiths  3 , Dan Turner  19
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Free article
Meta-Analysis

Predicting Outcomes in Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis for Management Optimization: Systematic Review and Consensus Statements From the Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease-Ahead Program

Esther Orlanski-Meyer et al. Gastroenterology. 2021 Jan.
Free article

Abstract

Background & aims: A better understanding of prognostic factors in ulcerative colitis (UC) could improve patient management and reduce complications. We aimed to identify evidence-based predictors for outcomes in pediatric UC, which may be used to optimize treatment algorithms.

Methods: Potential outcomes worthy of prediction in UC were determined by surveying 202 experts in pediatric UC. A systematic review of the literature, with selected meta-analysis, was performed to identify studies that investigated predictors for these outcomes. Multiple national and international meetings were held to reach consensus on evidence-based statements.

Results: Consensus was reached on 31 statements regarding predictors of colectomy, acute severe colitis (ASC), chronically active pediatric UC, cancer and mortality. At diagnosis, disease extent (6 studies, N = 627; P = .035), Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index score (4 studies, n = 318; P < .001), hemoglobin, hematocrit, and albumin may predict colectomy. In addition, family history of UC (2 studies, n = 557; P = .0004), extraintestinal manifestations (4 studies, n = 526; P = .048), and disease extension over time may predict colectomy, whereas primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) may be protective. Acute severe colitis may be predicted by disease severity at onset and hypoalbuminemia. Higher Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index score and C-reactive protein on days 3 and 5 of hospital admission predict failure of intravenous steroids. Risk factors for malignancy included concomitant diagnosis of primary sclerosing cholangitis, longstanding colitis (>10 years), male sex, and younger age at diagnosis.

Conclusions: These evidence-based consensus statements offer predictions to be considered for a personalized medicine approach in treating pediatric UC.

Keywords: Acute Severe Colitis; Cancer; Colectomy; Mortality; Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis; Prediction; Prognostic Factors.

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