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. 2020 Oct 21;6(43):eabd4563.
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abd4563. Print 2020 Oct.

Model uncertainty, political contestation, and public trust in science: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

S E Kreps  1 , D L Kriner  2
Affiliations

Model uncertainty, political contestation, and public trust in science: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

S E Kreps et al. Sci Adv. .

Abstract

While scientific uncertainty always invites the risk of politicization and raises questions of how to communicate about science, this risk is magnified for COVID-19. The limited data and accelerated research timelines mean that some prominent models or findings inevitably will be overturned or retracted. In this research, we examine the attitudes of more than 6000 Americans across five different survey experiments to understand how the cue giver and cue given about scientific uncertainty regarding COVID-19 affect public trust in science and support for science-based policy. Criticism from Democratic political elites undermines trust more than criticism from Republicans. Emphasizing uncertainty in projections can erode public trust in some contexts. Downplaying uncertainty can raise support in the short term, but reversals in projections may temper these effects or even reduce scientific trust. Careful science communication is critical to maintaining public support for science-based policies as the scientific consensus shifts over time.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Effects of partisan elite cues on support for models and general attitudes toward science.
I-bars present 90% confidence intervals around each difference in means from the control group.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Effects of elite criticism by party.
I-bars present 90% confidence intervals around each difference in means from the control group.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Effects of prediction reversals and range.
I-bars present 90% confidence intervals around each difference in means from the point estimate for the control group.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Effects of weaponizing uncertainty versus catastrophizing consequences.
I-bars present 90% confidence intervals around each difference in means from the control group.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5. Effects of criticisms about uncertainty in COVID-19 science versus justifications.
I-bars present 90% confidence intervals around each difference in means from the control group.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6. Treatment effects by science knowledge.
(Top) Effect of the reversal and range treatments from experiment 3 on the science support score. (Bottom) Effects of the weaponizing, catastrophizing, and combined treatments from experiment 4 on support for using COVID-19 models to guide reopening. Shaded bands present 90% confidence intervals around point estimates.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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