National case fatality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Objectives: The case fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) varies significantly between countries. We aimed to describe the associations between health indicators and the national CFRs of COVID-19.

Methods: We identified for each country health indicators potentially associated with the national CFRs of COVID-19. We extracted data for 18 variables from international administrative data sources for 34 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We excluded the collinear variables and examined the 16 variables in multivariable analysis. A dynamic web-based model was developed to analyse and display the associations for the CFRs of COVID-19. We followed the Guideline for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

Results: In multivariable analysis, the variables significantly associated with the increased CFRs were percentage of obesity in ages >18 years (β = 3.26; 95%CI = 1.20, 5.33; p 0.003), tuberculosis incidence (β = 3.15; 95%CI = 1.09, 5.22; p 0.004), duration (days) since first death due to COVID-19 (β = 2.89; 95%CI = 0.83, 4.96; p 0.008), and median age (β = 2.83; 95%CI = 0.76, 4.89; p 0.009). The COVID-19 test rate (β = -3.54; 95%CI = -5.60, -1.47; p 0.002), hospital bed density (β = -2.47; 95%CI = -4.54, -0.41; p 0.021), and rural population ratio (β = -2.19; 95%CI = -4.25, -0.13; p 0.039) decreased the CFR.

Conclusions: The pandemic hits population-dense cities. Available hospital beds should be increased. Test capacity should be increased to enable more effective diagnostic tests. Older patients and patients with obesity and their caregivers should be warned about a potentially increased risk.

Keywords: COVID-19; Case fatality rate; Epidemiologic; Health indicators; SARS-CoV-2.

Fig. 1

Study flow for data extraction.

Fig. 2

Collinearity analysis showing the correlation between input variables as of 18th August 2020.

Fig. 3

National case fatality rates of COVID-19 and their significant predictors in 34 OECD member countries as of 18th August 2020. (A) National case fatality rates of COVID-19. (B) Number of tests (per 1000 people). (C) Obesity in ages 18+ (%). (D) Tuberculosis incidence (per 1000 people). (E) Duration since first death (days). (F) Median age (years). (G) Number of hospital beds (per 1000 people). (H) Rural population (%).