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. 2021 Apr 26;72(8):1463-1466.
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa933.

Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation

Jaspreet Toor  1 , Emily R Adams  2 , Maryam Aliee  3   4 , Benjamin Amoah  5 , Roy M Anderson  6   7   8 , Diepreye Ayabina  1 , Robin Bailey  9 , Maria-Gloria Basáñez  6   7 , David J Blok  10 , Seth Blumberg  11 , Anna Borlase  1 , Rocio Caja Rivera  12 , María Soledad Castaño  13   14 , Nakul Chitnis  13   14 , Luc E Coffeng  10 , Ronald E Crump  3   4   15 , Aatreyee Das  13   14 , Christopher N Davis  3   4 , Emma L Davis  1 , Michael S Deiner  11   16 , Peter J Diggle  5 , Claudio Fronterre  5 , Federica Giardina  10 , Emanuele Giorgi  5 , Matthew Graham  1   17 , Jonathan I D Hamley  6   7 , Ching-I Huang  3   4 , Klodeta Kura  6   7 , Thomas M Lietman  11   16   18 , Tim C D Lucas  1 , Veronica Malizia  10 , Graham F Medley  17 , Aronrag Meeyai  17 , Edwin Michael  12 , Travis C Porco  11   16   18 , Joaquin M Prada  19 , Kat S Rock  3   4 , Epke A Le Rutte  10   13   14 , Morgan E Smith  12 , Simon E F Spencer  4   20 , Wilma A Stolk  10 , Panayiota Touloupou  20 , Andreia Vasconcelos  1 , Carolin Vegvari  6   7 , Sake J de Vlas  10 , Martin Walker  6   21 , T Déirdre Hollingsworth  1
Affiliations

Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation

Jaspreet Toor et al. Clin Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals.

Keywords: coronavirus; modeling; neglected tropical diseases.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Modelling projections showing the impact of missing a round of MDA for schistosomiasis (Schistosoma mansoni; mean worm lifespan, 5.6 years) and (Anopheles-transmitted) lymphatic filariasis (Wuchereria bancrofti; mean worm lifespan, 8 years). Schistosomiasis starting at 75% baseline prevalence in school-aged children (5–14 years old) and treating 75% of school-aged children with praziquantel. Lymphatic filariasis starting at 15% baseline prevalence in the entire population and treating 65% communitywide with ivermectin and albendazole (assuming 30% long-lasting insecticidal nets coverage). Abbreviation: MDA, mass drug administration.
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