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. 2020 Dec;35(12):3753-3755.
doi: 10.1007/s11606-020-06244-9. Epub 2020 Sep 28.

Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines

Patrick Bodilly Kane  1 , Hannah Moyer  1 , Amanda MacPherson  1 , Jesse Papenburg  2 , Brian J Ward  3 , Stephen B Broomell  4 , Jonathan Kimmelman  5
Affiliations

Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines

Patrick Bodilly Kane et al. J Gen Intern Med. 2020 Dec.
No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

PBK, SBB, HM, AM, and JK declare no conflicts of interest. BJW serves as medical officer for Medicago Inc., a pre-clinical biotechnology company with a candidate vaccine for SARS-COV-2. JP has received consulting/honoraria fees from AbbVie, Cepheid and Seegene, and Jannsen and research grant funding outside of the current work from AbbVie, BD Diagnostics, Sanofi Pasteur, and MedImmune.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Boxplots of the best guess, soonest estimate, and latest estimate for each of the vaccine development milestones. The width of each box represents the interquartile range and the bar represents the median. The median best guess, soonest guess, and latest guess for the first field trial reporting results were respectively March 2021, December 2020, and July 2021 (interquartile ranges were respectively January 2021–April/May 2021, November 2020–January 2021, and June 2021–January 2022). The median best guess, soonest guess, and latest guess for a vaccine being available to at-risk individuals were respectively March/April 2021, February 2020, and December 2021 (interquartile ranges were respectively February 2021–September 2021, January 2021–April/May 2021, and June 2021–May 2022). The median best guess, soonest guess, and latest guess for the vaccine being available to the public were respectively September/October 2021, June 2021, and July 2022 (interquartile ranges were respectively June 2021–January 2022, March 2021–September 2021, and December 2021–October/November 2023).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Histograms of probabilities provided for the two setback questions. The median forecast that the FDA would issue a black box warning for a widely deployed vaccine was 30% (interquartile range 15–40%). For the probability of the first field study in the USA or Canada reporting a null or negative result on an efficacy endpoint, the median probability was 40% (interquartile range 23–51%).
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