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Review
. 2020 Sep 25;17(19):7016.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph17197016.

An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings

Bader S Al-Anzi  1 , Mohammad Alenizi  2 , Jehad Al Dallal  3 , Frage Lhadi Abookleesh  4 , Aman Ullah  4
Affiliations
Review

An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings

Bader S Al-Anzi et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

This study is an overview of the current and future trajectory, as well as the impact of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the world and selected countries including the state of Kuwait. The selected countries were divided into two groups: Group A (China, Switzerland, and Ireland) and Group B (USA, Brazil, and India) based on their outbreak containment of this virus. Then, the actual data for each country were fitted to a regression model utilizing the excel solver software to assess the current and future trajectory of novel COVID-19 and its impact. In addition, the data were fitted using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Model. The Group A trajectory showed an "S" shape trend that suited a logistic function with r2 > 0.97, which is an indication of the outbreak control. The SIR models for the countries in this group showed that they passed the expected 99% end of pandemic dates. Group B, however, exhibited a continuous increase of the total COVID-19 new cases, that best suited an exponential growth model with r2 > 0.97, which meant that the outbreak is still uncontrolled. The SIR models for the countries in this group showed that they are still relatively far away from reaching the expected 97% end of pandemic dates. The maximum death percentage varied from 3.3% (India) to 7.2% with USA recording the highest death percentage, which is virtually equal to the maximum death percentage of the world (7.3%). The power of the exponential model determines the severity of the country's trajectory that ranged from 11 to 19 with the USA and Brazil having the highest values. The maximum impact of this COVID-19 pandemic occurred during the uncontrolled stage (2), which mainly depended on the deceptive stage (1). Further, some novel potential containment strategies are discussed. Results from both models showed that the Group A countries contained the outbreak, whereas the Group B countries still have not reached this stage yet. Early measures and containment strategies are imperative in suppressing the spread of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; containment strategies; death percentage; exponential model; polynomial model; trajectory.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
World total infected novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Growth trajectory of COVID-19 cases in China (Group A).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Growth trajectory of COVID-19 cases in Brazil (Group B).
Figure 4
Figure 4
(a) Switzerland and (b) Ireland as examples of Group A, and (c) USA and (d) India as examples of Group B.
Figure 5
Figure 5
The world deaths due to the novel COVID-19 infections.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Total deaths due to the novel COVID-19 infections in the USA.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Total deaths due to the novel COVID-19 infections in Switzerland.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Total deaths due to COVID-19 infections in the selected countries of the world.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Infected cases per capita, A, for the selected countries of the world.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Deaths per infected individual percentage, B, for the selected countries and the world.
Figure 11
Figure 11
Death percentage rates of some of the selected countries along with the total death cases of the world.
Figure 12
Figure 12
Logistic function regression fit of the total COVID-19 infected cases of Group A countries (a) Switzerland and (b) Ireland.
Figure 13
Figure 13
Exponential growth regression fit of the total COVID-19 infected cases of Group B countries (a) Brazil and (b) India.
Figure 14
Figure 14
Exponential growth regression fit of the world’s current and future trajectory of COVID-19 total infected cases.
Figure 15
Figure 15
Prediction results for infection cases in China.
Figure 16
Figure 16
Prediction results for infection cases in Switzerland.
Figure 17
Figure 17
Prediction results for infection cases in Ireland.
Figure 18
Figure 18
Prediction results for infection cases in USA.
Figure 19
Figure 19
Prediction results for infection cases in Brazil.
Figure 20
Figure 20
Prediction results for infection cases in India.
Figure 21
Figure 21
Exponential growth regression fit of Kuwait’s current and future trajectory of COVID-19 total infected cases.
Figure 22
Figure 22
Prediction results for infection cases in Kuwait.
Figure 23
Figure 23
Three critical stages that novel COVID-19 is expected to go through.
Figure 24
Figure 24
Targeted trajectory of COVID-19 as opposed to the current one.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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