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. 2020 Sep 29;20(1):1468.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-09560-1.

Determinants of malaria among under-five children in Ethiopia: Bayesian multilevel analysis

Setognal Birara Aychiluhm  1 , Kassahun Alemu Gelaye  2 , Dessie Abebaw Angaw  2 , Getachew Asfaw Dagne  3 , Abay Woday Tadesse  4 , Adugna Abera  5 , Dereje Dillu  6
Affiliations

Determinants of malaria among under-five children in Ethiopia: Bayesian multilevel analysis

Setognal Birara Aychiluhm et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: In Ethiopia, malaria is one of the public health problems, and it is still among the ten top leading causes of morbidity and mortality among under-five children. However, the studies conducted in the country have been inconclusive and inconsistent. Thus, this study aimed to assess factors associated with malaria among under-five children in Ethiopia.

Methods: We retrieved secondary data from the malaria indicator survey data collected from September 30 to December 10, 2015, in Ethiopia. A total of 8301 under-five-year-old children who had microscopy test results were included in the study. Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models were fitted and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the model parameters using Gibbs sampling. Adjusted Odd Ratio with 95% credible interval in the multivariable model was used to select variables that have a significant association with malaria.

Results: In this study, sleeping under the insecticide-treated bed nets during bed time (ITN) [AOR 0.58,95% CI, 0.31-0.97)], having 2 and more ITN for the household [AOR 0.43, (95% CI, 0.17-0.88)], have radio [AOR 0.41, (95% CI, 0.19-0.78)], have television [AOR 0.19, (95% CI, 0.01-0.89)] and altitude [AOR 0.05, (95% CI, 0.01-0.13)] were the predictors of malaria among under-five children.

Conclusions: The study revealed that sleeping under ITN, having two and more ITN for the household, altitude, availability of radio, and television were the predictors of malaria among under-five children in Ethiopia. Thus, the government should strengthen the availability and utilization of ITN to halt under-five mortality due to malaria.

Keywords: Bayesian multilevel logistic regression; Ethiopia; Malaria microscopy test.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Prevalence of malaria under the age of 5 years old within each sampled region of Ethiopia, 2015
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
History plot for some of the significant parameters in the model
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Density plot for some of the significant parameters in the model
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Autocorrelation plot for some of the significant parameters in the model
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Gelman-Rubin Statistics plot for some of the significant parameters in the model
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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