The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires

Abstract

Persistently high levels of unintended fertility, combined with evidence that over- and underachieved fertility are typical and not exceptional, have prompted researchers to question the utility of fertility desires writ large. In this study, we elaborate this paradox: widespread unintendedness and meaningful, highly predictive fertility desires can and do coexist. Using data from Malawi, we demonstrate the predictive validity of numeric fertility timing desires over both four-month and one-year periods. We find that fertility timing desires are highly predictive of pregnancy and that they follow a gradient wherein the likelihood of pregnancy decreases in correspondence with desired time to next birth. This finding holds despite the simultaneous observation of high levels of unintended pregnancy in our sample. Discordance between desires and behaviors reflects constraints to achieving one's fertility and the fluidity of desires but not their irrelevance. Fertility desires remain an essential-if sometimes blunt-tool in the demographers' toolkit.

Keywords: Fertility; Fertility desires; Malawi.

Fig. 1

Relationship between desired timing of next birth and subsequent pregnancy over four months and over one year

Fig. 2

Odds ratios (ORs) of pregnancy within four months and within one year for women desiring a pregnancy in the corresponding time frame versus women desiring to delay. Results of 10 logistic regression models across three analytic samples (full sample, married women only, unmarried women only). Solid lines indicate 95% confidence intervals (CIs) around unadjusted odds ratios of pregnancy within a given time frame by a stated desire to be pregnant within that time. Dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals around adjusted ORs from models that include controls for age, years of education, parity, marital status (full sample only), and having had a birth in the past year. Unmarried women are excluded from the top panel because the small number of unmarried women (n = 6) who reported a desire for pregnancy as soon as possible predicted failure perfectly.