Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

Sadie J Ryan^{1

2

3}, Colin J Carlson⁴, Blanka Tesla^{5

6}, Matthew H Bonds⁷, Calistus N Ngonghala^{2

8}, Erin A Mordecai⁹, Leah R Johnson^{10

11}, Courtney C Murdock^{5

6

12

13

14

15

16}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
² Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
³ School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
⁴ Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
⁵ Department of Infectious Diseases, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
⁶ Center for Tropical and Emerging Global Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
⁷ Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
⁸ Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
⁹ Biology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
¹¹ Computational Modeling and Data Analytics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
¹² Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
¹³ Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
¹⁴ Center for Vaccines and Immunology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
¹⁵ Riverbasin Center, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
¹⁶ Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.

PMID: 33037740
PMCID: PMC7756632
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15384

Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

Sadie J Ryan et al. Glob Chang Biol. 2021 Jan.

. 2021 Jan;27(1):84-93.

doi: 10.1111/gcb.15384. Epub 2020 Oct 28.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
² Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
³ School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
⁴ Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
⁵ Department of Infectious Diseases, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
⁶ Center for Tropical and Emerging Global Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
⁷ Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
⁸ Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
⁹ Biology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
¹¹ Computational Modeling and Data Analytics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
¹² Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
¹³ Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
¹⁴ Center for Vaccines and Immunology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
¹⁵ Riverbasin Center, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
¹⁶ Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.

PMID: 33037740
PMCID: PMC7756632
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15384

Abstract

In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature-dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid-century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst-case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti; Zika virus; arboviruses; climate change; disease risk; vector-borne diseases.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

**FIGURE 1**
Current distribution of temperature suitability for Zika transmission, by month. Results show the number of suitable months per year based on a 97.5% posterior probability for R0(T) > 0 based on the Tesla et al. (2018) model of Zika transmission, as a function of mean monthly temperature in each pixel

**FIGURE 3**
Regional increases in populations at risk for any transmission (one or more months). Regions are defined according to the Global Burden of Disease regions (detailed in Figure S1), and proportional red circles illustrate the regional populations (in millions) at risk under (a) RCP 4.5 and (b) RCP 8.5 [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

See this image and copyright information in PMC

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Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

Affiliations

Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

Figures

References

MeSH terms

Grants and funding

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Medical