Habitat suitability model of endangered Latidens salimalii and the probable consequences of global warming

Abstract

Salim Ali's fruit bat, Latidens salimalii, is a monotypic endangered fruit bat endemic to Western Ghats (WG) with an ambiguous distribution. The distribution range, habitat suitability, and biology of this species are still uncertain. Endemic species inhabiting the high elevation of WG like L. salimalii are threatened due to climatic change and seeks urgent management interventions. Hence, we developed a habitat suitability model for L. salimalii using MaxEnt in the current climate condition and projected their distribution for three Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) climate scenarios of the 2070 time frame. The results show that 9531 km²of habitat in WG is suitable for L. salimalii at present, while all the future scenarios estimates propose complete loss of highly suitable habitat. The significant factors influencing the distribution of L. salimalii are the precipitation of the driest month, tree density, rain in the coldest quarter, canopy height, and altitude. The study pioneers in predicting the suitable habitat and emphasis the need to develop strategies for the long-term conservation of endangered L. salimalii in WG under global warming scenarios.

Keywords: Climate change; Endemic species; Habitat loss; Maxent; Western Ghats.

Fig. 1

Locations of Latidens salimalii in the WG mountain chains in India

Fig. 2

Portrait of Latidens salimalii (a), ventral view (b), dorsal view (c), lower jaw with one pair of incisor (d)

Fig. 3

Response curves showing relationships between the important environmental variables and probability of presence of Latidens salimalii and Jackknife test showing the relative importance of different environmental predictors. The values shown are an average of ten replicates of cross-validated Maxent models

Fig. 4

Habitat suitability for L. salimalii in WG under the current climatic conditions, vegetation and topographic feature

Fig. 5

Predicted future distribution model of L. salimalii under RCP 4.5 (a), RCP 6.0 (b) and RCP 8.5 (c) emission scenarios. The logistic output raster classified into five potential classes viz., very high potential (> 0.7.5), high potential (0.5–0.75), good potential (0.25–0.5), moderate potential (0.13–0.25) and least potential (< 0.13)