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. 2020 Dec;110(12):1837-1843.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2020.305893. Epub 2020 Oct 15.

Estimation of the Outbreak Severity and Evaluation of Epidemic Prevention Ability of COVID-19 by Province in China

Yilei Ma  1 , Xuehan Liu  1 , Weiwei Tao  1 , Yuchen Tian  1 , Yanran Duan  1 , Ming Xiang  1 , Jing Hu  1 , Lei Li  1 , Yalan Lyu  1 , Peng Wang  1 , Yangxin Huang  1 , Caihong Lu  1 , Wenhua Liu  1 , Hongwei Jiang  1 , Ping Yin  1
Affiliations

Estimation of the Outbreak Severity and Evaluation of Epidemic Prevention Ability of COVID-19 by Province in China

Yilei Ma et al. Am J Public Health. 2020 Dec.

Abstract

Objectives. To compare the epidemic prevention ability of COVID-19 of each province in China and to evaluate the existing prevention and control capacity of each province.Methods. We established a quasi-Poisson linear mixed-effects model using the case data in cities outside Wuhan in Hubei Province, China. We adapted this model to estimate the number of potential cases in Wuhan and obtained epidemiological parameters. We estimated the initial number of cases in each province by using passenger flowrate data and constructed the extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to predict the future disease transmission trends.Results. The estimated potential cases in Wuhan were about 3 times the reported cases. The basic reproductive number was 3.30 during the initial outbreak. Provinces with more estimated imported cases than reported cases were those in the surrounding provinces of Hubei, including Henan and Shaanxi. The regions where the number of reported cases was closer to the predicted value were most the developed areas, including Beijing and Shanghai.Conclusions. The number of confirmed cases in Wuhan was underestimated in the initial period of the outbreak. Provincial surveillance and emergency response capabilities vary across the country.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Proportion of Reported Confirmed Cases to Number of People Imported From Wuhan in Other Cities of Hubei Province, China Note. CI = confidence interval. The blue circle represents the proportion of the estimated number of people infected to the number of people left in Wuhan after January 23, 2020, and the red triangle represents the proportion of the reported confirmed number to the number of people left in Wuhan after January 23, 2020.
FIGURE 2—
FIGURE 2—
Estimated and Reported Confirmed Number of Infected Cases: Wuhan, China, January 24–February 5, 2020 Note. CI = confidence interval.
FIGURE 3—
FIGURE 3—
Heat Map of Ratio of Estimated Cases to Reported Confirmed Cases: China, January 24, 2020
FIGURE 4—
FIGURE 4—
Semilogarithmic Graph of Daily Confirmed Cases in (a) Henan and (b) Beijing, China: January 24–February 15, 2020
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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