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Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy

Giorgio Guzzetta et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 Jan.

Abstract

On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.

Keywords: COVID-19; Italy; SARS; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus disease; lockdown; reproduction number; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; transmissibility; viruses; zoonoses.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Basic (R0) and net reproduction numbers for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 for all regions and autonomous provinces in Italy. Regions are sorted by decreasing number of cases (numbers in parentheses) on April 17. Bars indicate mean numbers; error bars indicate 95% CIs.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Distribution of the mean net reproduction numbers for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in 100 selected provinces in Italy. Green lines indicate average value of Rt, weighted by the number of reported cases by each province. Gray line indicates epidemic threshold.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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