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. 2021;46(5):704-727.
doi: 10.1007/s12103-020-09578-6. Epub 2020 Oct 19.

Exploring the Immediate Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: an Empirical Analysis of the Short-Term Aftermath in Los Angeles

Gian Maria Campedelli  1 , Alberto Aziani  2   3 , Serena Favarin  2   3
Affiliations

Exploring the Immediate Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: an Empirical Analysis of the Short-Term Aftermath in Los Angeles

Gian Maria Campedelli et al. Am J Crim Justice. 2021.

Abstract

This work investigates whether and how COVID-19 containment policies had an immediate impact on crime trends in Los Angeles. The analysis is conducted using Bayesian structural time-series and focuses on nine crime categories and on the overall crime count, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 28th 2020. We concentrate on two post-intervention time windows-from March 4th to March 16th and from March 4th to March 28th 2020-to dynamically assess the short-term effects of mild and strict policies. In Los Angeles, overall crime has significantly decreased, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft, and battery. No significant effect has been detected for vehicle theft, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, intimate partner assault, and homicide. Results suggest that, in the first weeks after the interventions are put in place, social distancing impacts more directly on instrumental and less serious crimes. Policy implications are also discussed.

Keywords: Bayesian Modelling; Causal impact; Coronavirus; Crime pattern theory; General strain theory; Routine activity theory.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest/Competing InterestsThe authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Mobility trends in the city of Los Angeles, January 1st 2020 – April 15th 2020. Source: Mobility Trends Reports, Apple (2020)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Number of Observations per Crime Category
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Time Series of Considered Crimes
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Graphical Summary of Model Results (with 95% Confidence Intervals)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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