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Comment
. 2021 Dec 6;73(11):e3984-e3985.
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1656.

Estimated Sensitivity Values of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Tests from Cross-sectional Data Warrant Caution Due to Unvalidated Model Assumptions

Akira Endo  1
Affiliations
Comment

Estimated Sensitivity Values of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Tests from Cross-sectional Data Warrant Caution Due to Unvalidated Model Assumptions

Akira Endo. Clin Infect Dis. .
No abstract available

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Posterior distributions and simulated dataset. A, Estimated sensitivity and PAR for NPS and saliva tests. Top panels: posterior distribution of sensitivity reproduced from the original method. Bottom panels: PARs obtained from only saliva-positive samples for NPS and NPS-positive samples for saliva. The histograms show 10 000 posterior samples. B, Simulated hypothetical viral loads in NPS and saliva samples. Assuming a multivariate-normal distribution with a Pearson’s correlation of 0.8, 61 samples were drawn and plotted. Detection limits for NPS and saliva tests were assumed to be −0.3 and −0.5, respectively (denoted by dashed lines) and each sample was colored according to the test results (blue: both positive; green: 1 positive and 1 negative; red: both negative). Kendall’s W for samples with at least 1 positive test (viral load above the detection limit) was 0.86. C, Simulated and original data in 2-by-2 tables. The simulated viral loads were classified as positive/negative according to the assumed detection limits. Left table: simulated data restricted to truly infected individuals. Middle table: overall simulated data combined with 100 true-negative individuals (assumed to be negative for both tests). Right table: the original contact-tracing data. Abbreviations: CrI, credible interval; NPS, nasopharyngeal swab; PAR, positive agreement rate.
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Comment in

  • Reply to Iwata and Yoshimura, and Endo.
    Yokota I, Sakamaki K, Shane PY, Teshima T. Yokota I, et al. Clin Infect Dis. 2021 Dec 6;73(11):e3986-e3987. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1658. Clin Infect Dis. 2021. PMID: 33104798 No abstract available.

Comment on

References

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