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Comparative Study
. 2020 Dec;10(2):020407.
doi: 10.7189/jogh.10.020407.

A comparative, correlate analysis and projection of global and regional life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, and their GAP: 1995-2025

Xinxi Cao  1 , Yabing Hou  1 , Xinyu Zhang  1 , Chenjie Xu  1 , Peng Jia  2 , Xiaomin Sun  3 , Li Sun  4 , Ying Gao  5 , Hongxi Yang  1   6 , Zhuang Cui  1 , Youfa Wang  3 , Yaogang Wang  1
Affiliations
Comparative Study

A comparative, correlate analysis and projection of global and regional life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, and their GAP: 1995-2025

Xinxi Cao et al. J Glob Health. 2020 Dec.

Abstract

Background: Life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) are indicators measuring the national health level. GAP is the difference between them. This study systematically analyzed and projected LE, HALE, and GAP across global regions from 1995 to 2025.

Methods: We obtained the data of 195 countries/regions on their LE, HALE, and influencing factors from 1995 to 2017. We compared the overall changes of LE, HALE, and GAP. Multiple linear regression analysis examined relationships among LE, HALE, GAP, and the associated factors. Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, we projected trends in LE, HALE, and GAP for 2017-2025.

Results: During 1995-2017, LE, HALE, and their GAP in 195 countries/regions in the world showed overall increasing trends. Global average LE increased from 66.20 to 72.98 years, HALE from 57.59 to 63.25 years, and GAP from 8.62 to 9.72 years. LE and HALE in North America, Europe, and Australia were generally higher, while Africa had the lowest rates. Females' LE, HALE, and GAP were all higher than males', but females' growth rates of LE and HALE were lower. Different factors were included to project LE, HALE, and GAP, respectively, and prediction results showed that approximately 18% of the 195 countries/regions might achieve improved LE and HALE and lower GAP.

Conclusions: LE, HALE will likely continue to increase in most of countries and regions worldwide in the future and GAP will further expand. While striving to improve LE and HALE, more attention needs be made to reduce GAP and improve quality of life.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: The authors completed the ICMJE Unified Competing Interest form (available upon request from the corresponding author), and declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends of global and regional LE, HALE, and GAP, 1995 and 2017.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Changes in life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE) and RATE (GAP/LE) between 1995 and 2017 in different countries and regions and gender differences. Panel A. Changes in life expectancy between 1995 and 2017 in different countries and regions and gender differences. Panel B. Changes in healthy life expectancy between 1995 and 2017 in different countries and regions and gender differences. Panel C. Changes in RATE between 1995 and 2017 in different countries and regions and gender differences. GAP – difference between LE and HALE.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Comparison of global and regional life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE) and their difference (GAP) between 1995 and 2017. Panel A. Comparison of life expectancy, 1995 and 2017. Panel B. Comparison of healthy life expectancy, 1995 and 2017. Panel C. Comparison of GAP, 1995 and 2017.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Countries/regions with special turning points of life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE) and their difference (GAP). Panel A. Countries/regions with turning points of life expectancy. Panel B. Countries/ regions with turning points of healthy life expectancy. Panel C. Countries/regions with turning points of GAP.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Eight scenarios of prediction of life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE) and their difference (GAP).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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