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. 2020 Oct 29:148:e264.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268820002617.

Excess mortality in the United States during the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic

R Rivera  1 , J E Rosenbaum  2 , W Quispe  1
Affiliations

Excess mortality in the United States during the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic

R Rivera et al. Epidemiol Infect. .

Abstract

Deaths are frequently under-estimated during emergencies, times when accurate mortality estimates are crucial for emergency response. This study estimates excess all-cause, pneumonia and influenza mortality during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic using the 11 September 2020 release of weekly mortality data from the United States (U.S.) Mortality Surveillance System (MSS) from 27 September 2015 to 9 May 2020, using semiparametric and conventional time-series models in 13 states with high reported COVID-19 deaths and apparently complete mortality data: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Washington. We estimated greater excess mortality than official COVID-19 mortality in the U.S. (excess mortality 95% confidence interval (CI) 100 013-127 501 vs. 78 834 COVID-19 deaths) and 9 states: California (excess mortality 95% CI 3338-6344) vs. 2849 COVID-19 deaths); Connecticut (excess mortality 95% CI 3095-3952) vs. 2932 COVID-19 deaths); Illinois (95% CI 4646-6111) vs. 3525 COVID-19 deaths); Louisiana (excess mortality 95% CI 2341-3183 vs. 2267 COVID-19 deaths); Massachusetts (95% CI 5562-7201 vs. 5050 COVID-19 deaths); New Jersey (95% CI 13 170-16 058 vs. 10 465 COVID-19 deaths); New York (95% CI 32 538-39 960 vs. 26 584 COVID-19 deaths); and Pennsylvania (95% CI 5125-6560 vs. 3793 COVID-19 deaths). Conventional model results were consistent with semiparametric results but less precise. Significant excess pneumonia deaths were also found for all locations and we estimated hundreds of excess influenza deaths in New York. We find that official COVID-19 mortality substantially understates actual mortality, excess deaths cannot be explained entirely by official COVID-19 death counts. Mortality reporting lags appeared to worsen during the pandemic, when timeliness in surveillance systems was most crucial for improving pandemic response.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; excess deaths; infectious disease; natural disasters.

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Conflict of interest statement

Authors have no conflict of interest to report.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Provisional weekly all-cause, pneumonia and influenza mortality counts for the United States from weekly data releases 10 April–12 June 2020.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Weekly all-cause mortality grouped by year and state starting on week 40 of 2015 until 9 May 2020.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Weekly pneumonia mortality grouped by year and state starting on week 40 of 2015 until 9 May 2020.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Weekly influenza mortality grouped by year and state starting on week 40 of 2015 until 9 May 2020.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.
Weekly mortality in the United States by year starting on week 40 of 2015 until 9 May 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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