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Comparative Study
. 2020 Oct 30;20(1):805.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05537-y.

Comparison of spatiotemporal characteristics of the COVID-19 and SARS outbreaks in mainland China

Xi Zhang  1 , Huaxiang Rao  2 , Yuwan Wu  3 , Yubei Huang  4 , Hongji Dai  5
Affiliations
Comparative Study

Comparison of spatiotemporal characteristics of the COVID-19 and SARS outbreaks in mainland China

Xi Zhang et al. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: Both coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) are caused by coronaviruses and have infected people in China and worldwide. We aimed to investigate whether COVID-19 and SARS exhibited similar spatial and temporal features at provincial level in mainland China.

Methods: The number of people infected by COVID-19 and SARS were extracted from daily briefings on newly confirmed cases during the epidemics, as of Mar. 4, 2020 and Aug. 3, 2003, respectively. We depicted spatiotemporal patterns of the COVID-19 and SARS epidemics using spatial statistics such as Moran's I and the local indicators of spatial association (LISA).

Results: Compared to SARS, COVID-19 had a higher overall incidence. We identified 3 clusters (predominantly located in south-central China; the highest RR = 135.08, 95% CI: 128.36-142.08) for COVID-19 and 4 clusters (mainly in Northern China; the highest RR = 423.51, 95% CI: 240.96-722.32) for SARS. Fewer secondary clusters were identified after the "Wuhan lockdown". The LISA cluster map detected a significantly high-low (Hubei) and low-high spatial clustering (Anhui, Hunan, and Jiangxi, in Central China) for COVID-19. Two significant high-high (Beijing and Tianjin) and low-high (Hebei) clusters were detected for SARS.

Conclusions: COVID-19 and SARS outbreaks exhibited distinct spatiotemporal clustering patterns at the provincial levels in mainland China, which may be attributable to changes in social and demographic factors, local government containment strategies or differences in transmission mechanisms.

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Epidemic; SARS; Spatial clustering.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Spatial distribution of COVID-19 from March 4, 2020 (a) and SARS from August 3, 2003 (b) in mainland China. We drew this figure using ArcGIS software v10.2.2
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Temporal changes in the incidence of COVID-19 and SARS in 31 provinces in mainland China. The blue line indicates temporal changes for COVID-19 from January 20 to March 4, 2020. The yellow line indicates temporal changes in SARS from April 21 to August 3, 2003. The red dot indicates the peak number of incident cases. We drew this figure using Microsoft Excel 2013
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Comparison of spatiotemporal clustering of COVID-19 (a) and SARS (b). We drew this figure using ArcGIS software v10.2.2
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Moran scatter plot and LISA cluster map for COVID-19 (a) and SARS (b). We drew this figure using ArcGIS software v10.2.2
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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