Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies

Abstract

The rising number of COVID-19 cases and economic implications of lockdown measures indicate the tricky balancing act policy makers face as they implement the subsequent phases of 'unlock'. We develop a model to examine how lockdown and social distancing measures have influenced the behavioral conduct of people. The current situation highlights that policy makers need to focus on bringing awareness and social restraint among people rather than going for stringent lockdown measures. We believe this work will help the policy makers gain insights into the troubled COVID-19 times ahead, and based on the estimates, they can frame policies to navigate these wild waves in the best possible way.

Keywords: COVID-19; Causal loop diagram; Policy implications; SEIR model; System dynamics.

Fig. 1

Causal loop diagram explaining the cause-effect relationships for COVID-19.

Fig. 2

Stock and flow diagram. Depicts the movement of individuals across the four compartments of SEIR model based on the mentioned factors.

Fig. 3

Timeline of COVID-19 control measures taken by the Indian government.

Fig. 4

Number of active cases, deaths, and recoveries under different scenarios. The actual interventions have been successful in delaying the spread, but similar results could have been obtained with a moderate intervention by policy makers.

Fig. 5

Model predicted result vs Actual result. The average deviations are less than.2.5%.