Validation of the D: A: D Chronic Kidney Disease Risk Score Model Among People Living With HIV in the Asia-Pacific

Abstract

Background: We validated the Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) full-risk and short-risk score models for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the Asian HIV cohorts.

Settings: A validation study among people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged ≥18 years among the cohorts in the Asia-Pacific region.

Methods: PLHIV with a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate > 60 mL/min/1.73 m were included for validation of the D:A:D CKD full version and short version without cardiovascular risk factors. Those with <3 estimated glomerular filtration rate measurements from baseline or previous exposure to potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals were excluded. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate the probability of CKD development. The area under the receiver operating characteristics was also used to validate the risk score.

Results: We included 5701 participants in full model {median 8.1 [interquartile range (IQR) 4.8-10.9] years follow-up} and 9791 in short model validation [median 4.9 (IQR 2.5-7.3) years follow-up]. The crude incidence rate of CKD was 8.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.3 to 8.9] per 1000 person-years in the full model cohort and 10.5 (95% CI: 9.6 to 11.4) per 1000 person-years in the short model cohort. The progression rates for CKD at 10 years in the full model cohort were 2.7%, 8.9%, and 26.1% for low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups, and 3.5%, 11.7%, and 32.4% in the short model cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristics for the full-risk and short-risk score was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79 to 0.83) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.81 to 0.85), respectively.

Conclusion: The D:A:D CKD full-risk and short-risk score performed well in predicting CKD events among Asian PLHIV. These risk prediction models may be useful to assist clinicians in identifying individuals at high risk of developing CKD.

Figure 1.

Kaplan-Meier progression to CKD among TAHOD (full risk score) and TAHOD-LITE (short risk score)

Figure 1.

Kaplan-Meier progression to CKD among TAHOD (full risk score) and TAHOD-LITE (short risk score)

Figure 2.

Calibration of full and short D:A:D CKD risk score models among TAHOD (full risk score) and TAHOD-LITE (short- risk score)

Figure 2.

Calibration of full and short D:A:D CKD risk score models among TAHOD (full risk score) and TAHOD-LITE (short- risk score)