Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on the Incidence of Respiratory Infections During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in Korea: A Nationwide Surveillance Study

Abstract

Background: Many countries have implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to determine whether NPIs led to the decline in the incidences of respiratory infections.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective, ecological study using a nationwide notifiable diseases database and a respiratory virus sample surveillance collected from January 2016 through July 2020 in the Republic of Korea. Intervention period was defined as February-July 2020, when the government implemented NPIs nationwide. Observed incidences in the intervention period were compared with the predicted incidences by an autoregressive integrated moving average model and the 4-year mean cumulative incidences (CuIs) in the same months of the preintervention period.

Results: Five infectious diseases met the inclusion criteria: chickenpox, mumps, invasive pneumococcal disease, scarlet fever, and pertussis. The incidences of chickenpox and mumps during the intervention period were significantly lower than the prediction model. The CuIs (95% confidence interval) of chickenpox and mumps were 36.4% (23.9-76.3%) and 63.4% (48.0-93.3%) of the predicted values. Subgroup analysis showed that the decrease in the incidence was universal for chickenpox, while mumps showed a marginal reduction among those aged <18 years, but not in adults. The incidence of respiratory viruses was significantly lower than both the predicted incidence (19.5%; 95% confidence interval, 11.8-55.4%) and the 4-year mean CuIs in the preintervention period (24.5%; P < .001).

Conclusions: The implementation of NPIs was associated with a significant reduction in the incidences of several respiratory infections in Korea.

Keywords: COVID-19; South Korea; nonpharmaceutical intervention; respiratory infection; social distancing.