Using Capture-Recapture Methods to Estimate Influenza Hospitalization Incidence Rates

Abstract

Background: Accurate population estimates of disease incidence and burden are needed to set appropriate public health policy. The capture-recapture (C-R) method combines data from multiple sources to provide better estimates than is possible using single sources.

Methods: Data were derived from clinical virology test results and from an influenza vaccine effectiveness study from seasons 2016-2017 to 2018-2019. The Petersen C-R method was used to estimate the population size of influenza cases; these estimates were then used to calculate adult influenza hospitalization burden using a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) multiplier method.

Results: Over all seasons, 343 influenza cases were reported in the clinical database and 313 in the research database. Fifty-nine cases (17%) reported in the clinical database were not captured in the research database, and 29 (9%) cases in the research database were not captured in the clinical database. Influenza hospitalizations were higher among vaccinated (58%) than the unvaccinated (35%) in the current season and were similar among unvaccinated (51%) and vaccinated (49%) in the previous year. Completeness of the influenza hospitalization capture was estimated to be 76%. The incidence rates for influenza hospitalizations varied by age and season and averaged 307-309 cases/100,000 adult population annually.

Conclusion: Using Capture-Recapture methods with more than one database, along with a multiplier method with adjustments improves the population estimates of influenza disease burden compared with relying on a single data source.