Risk Prediction of the Diabetes Missing Million: Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Diabetes and Related Complications

Abstract

Early diagnosis and effective management of type 2 diabetes (T2D) are crucial in reducing the risk of developing life-changing complications such as heart failure, stroke, kidney disease, blindness and amputation, which are also associated with significant costs for healthcare providers. However, as T2D symptoms often develop slowly it is not uncommon for people to live with T2D for years without being aware of their condition-commonly known as the undiagnosed missing million. By the time a diagnosis is received, many individuals will have already developed serious complications. While the existence of undiagnosed diabetes has long been recognised, wide-reaching awareness among the general public, clinicians and policymakers is lacking, and there is uncertainty in how best to identify high-risk individuals. In this article we have used consensus expert opinion alongside the available evidence, to provide support for the diabetes healthcare community regarding risk prediction of the missing million. Its purpose is to provide awareness of the risk factors for identifying individuals at high, moderate and low risk of T2D and T2D-related complications. The awareness of risk predictors, particularly in primary care, is important, so that appropriate steps can be taken to reduce the clinical and economic burden of T2D and its complications.

Keywords: Chronic kidney disease; Diabetes-related complications; Heart failure; Risk prediction; Type 2 diabetes.

Fig. 1

Risk factors for identifying undiagnosed T2D. BMI body mass index, CVD cardiovascular disease, T2D type 2 diabetes

Fig. 2

Risk factors for identifying HF. BMI body mass index, CKD chronic kidney disease, CVD cardiovascular disease, ECG echocardiogram, T2D type 2 diabetes

Fig. 3

Risk factors for identifying CKD. BMI body mass index, CVD cardiovascular disease, ECG echocardiogram, HF heart failure