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. 2021 Apr 29;56(3):307-316.
doi: 10.1093/alcalc/agaa128.

Impact of COVID-19 Confinement on Alcohol Purchases in Great Britain: Controlled Interrupted Time-Series Analysis During the First Half of 2020 Compared With 2015-2018

Peter Anderson  1   2 , Eva Jané Llopis  2   3   4 , Amy O'Donnell  1 , Eileen Kaner  1
Affiliations

Impact of COVID-19 Confinement on Alcohol Purchases in Great Britain: Controlled Interrupted Time-Series Analysis During the First Half of 2020 Compared With 2015-2018

Peter Anderson et al. Alcohol Alcohol. .

Abstract

Aims: To investigate if COVID-19 confinement led to excess alcohol purchases by British households.

Methods: We undertake controlled interrupted time series analysis of the impact of COVID-19 confinement introduced on 26 March 2020, using purchase data from Kantar Worldpanel's of 23,833 British households during January to early July 2020, compared with 53,428 British households for the same time period during 2015-2018.

Results: Excess purchases due to confinement during 2020 were 178 g of alcohol per 100 households per day (adjusted for numbers of adults in each household) above an expected base of 438 g based on averaged 2015-2018 data, representing a 40.6% increase. However, when adjusting for expected normal purchases from on-licenced premises (i.e. bars, restaurants, etc.), there was evidence for no excess purchases of grams of alcohol (a 0.7% increase). With these adjustments, beer purchases dropped by 40%, wine purchases increased by 15% and spirits purchases by 22%. Excess purchases increased the richer the household and the lower the age of the main shopper. Confinement was associated with a shift in purchases from lower to higher strength beers.

Conclusion: During the COVID-19 confinement, the evidence suggests that households did not buy more alcohol for the expected time of the year, when adjusting for what they normally would have purchased from on-licenced premises.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Residuals, residual autocorrelations and residual partial autocorrelations for both the original and modelled series for our main dependent variable, differenced sum of grams of purchased alcohol per 100 households.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Hypothesized level change to be investigated.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Mean sum of grams of alcohol purchased (2020 minus average of 2015–2018) per 100 households (adjusted for numbers of adults in household) per day by study day. Vertical black line: introduction of confinement.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Proportion (%) of all beer purchased with ABV formula image 3.5% (left axis) and mean ABV% of purchased beer (right axis) per day by study day. Vertical black line: introduction of confinement.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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