Meta-analysis on Serial Intervals and Reproductive Rates for SARS-CoV-2

doi:10.1097/SLA.0000000000004400

Meta-Analysis

. 2021 Mar 1;273(3):416-423.

doi: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000004400.

Meta-analysis on Serial Intervals and Reproductive Rates for SARS-CoV-2

Mohammad Hussein¹, Eman Toraih^{1

2}, Rami Elshazli³, Manal Fawzy^{4

5}, August Houghton⁶, Danielle Tatum⁷, Mary Killackey¹, Emad Kandil⁸, Juan Duchesne⁹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA.
² Department of Histology and Cell Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Genetics Unit, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.
³ Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, Faculty of Physical Therapy, Horus University - Egypt, New Damietta, Egypt.
⁴ Department of Medical Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.
⁵ Department of Biochemistry, College of Medicine, Northern Border University, Arar, Saudi Arabia.
⁶ Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA.
⁷ Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center Baton Rouge, LA.
⁸ Department of Surgery, Division of Endocrine and Oncologic Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA.
⁹ Department of Surgery, Trauma/Acute Care and Critical Care, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA.

PMID: 33214421
DOI: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000004400

Meta-Analysis

Meta-analysis on Serial Intervals and Reproductive Rates for SARS-CoV-2

Mohammad Hussein et al. Ann Surg. 2021.

. 2021 Mar 1;273(3):416-423.

doi: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000004400.

Authors

Mohammad Hussein¹, Eman Toraih^{1

2}, Rami Elshazli³, Manal Fawzy^{4

5}, August Houghton⁶, Danielle Tatum⁷, Mary Killackey¹, Emad Kandil⁸, Juan Duchesne⁹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA.
² Department of Histology and Cell Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Genetics Unit, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.
³ Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, Faculty of Physical Therapy, Horus University - Egypt, New Damietta, Egypt.
⁴ Department of Medical Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.
⁵ Department of Biochemistry, College of Medicine, Northern Border University, Arar, Saudi Arabia.
⁶ Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA.
⁷ Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center Baton Rouge, LA.
⁸ Department of Surgery, Division of Endocrine and Oncologic Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA.
⁹ Department of Surgery, Trauma/Acute Care and Critical Care, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA.

PMID: 33214421
DOI: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000004400

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this study was to systematically review and meta-analyze all literature reporting the basic reproductive number (R0), effective reproductive number (Re or Rt), and the serial interval (SI) values of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.

Summary background data: To assess the rate at which an infectious disease can spread in a population, the 2 measures, R0 and Re or Rt, are widely used. One of the parameters which influence the calculations is the SI, the period between symptom onset in an infector and an infectee.

Methods: Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, and Science Direct searching up to May 10, 2020, was performed. A continuous random-effect model was applied using the DerSimonian-Laird (inverse variance) method. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed.

Results: A total of 39 articles met the eligibility criteria. Our results demonstrated the mean SI was 5.45 days, with the 95% confidence interval (CI) of 4.23 to 6.66. Pooled estimates for reproduction rates was 3.14 (95% CI: 2.69-3.59) for R0 and 3.18 (95% CI: 2.89-3.47) for Rt. Subgroup analysis by geographical region and date of publication revealed variations over both time and geography in calculated R0 and Rt values. As time has progressed, predicted R0 and Rt values had decreased globally.

Conclusions: The study findings indicate that one SARS-CoV-2-infected person is likely to infect 3 persons, supporting that COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease. As an essential objective metrics implied in risk assessment for this emerging pandemic, monitoring R0 and Re is necessary to indicate the effectiveness or failures of mitigation efforts.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors report no conflicts of interests.

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References

1. Toraih EA, Elshazli RM, Hussein MH, et al. Association of cardiac biomarkers and comorbidities with increased mortality, severity, and cardiac injury in COVID-19 patients: a meta-regression and decision tree analysis. J Med Virol 2020; 1–16.
1. Patel A, Jernigan DB. Initial public health response and interim clinical guidance for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus outbreak—United States, December 31, 2019-February 4, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020; 69:140–146.
1. Scarabel F, Pellis L, Bragazzi NL, et al. Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Infect Dis Model 2020; 5:316–322.
1. Chang HJ. Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015. Biomed Eng Online 2017; 16:79.
1. Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, et al. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: a data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int J Infect Dis 2020; 92:214–217.

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[1] Toraih EA, Elshazli RM, Hussein MH, et al. Association of cardiac biomarkers and comorbidities with increased mortality, severity, and cardiac injury in COVID-19 patients: a meta-regression and decision tree analysis. J Med Virol 2020; 1–16.

[2] Toraih EA, Elshazli RM, Hussein MH, et al. Association of cardiac biomarkers and comorbidities with increased mortality, severity, and cardiac injury in COVID-19 patients: a meta-regression and decision tree analysis. J Med Virol 2020; 1–16.

[3] Patel A, Jernigan DB. Initial public health response and interim clinical guidance for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus outbreak—United States, December 31, 2019-February 4, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020; 69:140–146.

[4] Patel A, Jernigan DB. Initial public health response and interim clinical guidance for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus outbreak—United States, December 31, 2019-February 4, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020; 69:140–146.

[5] Scarabel F, Pellis L, Bragazzi NL, et al. Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Infect Dis Model 2020; 5:316–322.

[6] Scarabel F, Pellis L, Bragazzi NL, et al. Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Infect Dis Model 2020; 5:316–322.

[7] Chang HJ. Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015. Biomed Eng Online 2017; 16:79.

[8] Chang HJ. Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015. Biomed Eng Online 2017; 16:79.

[9] Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, et al. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: a data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int J Infect Dis 2020; 92:214–217.

[10] Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, et al. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: a data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int J Infect Dis 2020; 92:214–217.

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Meta-analysis on Serial Intervals and Reproductive Rates for SARS-CoV-2

Affiliations

Meta-analysis on Serial Intervals and Reproductive Rates for SARS-CoV-2

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

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Cited by

References

Publication types

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Medical

Research Materials

Miscellaneous