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. 2020 Dec 1;11(1):5946.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-19578-z.

The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world's forests to mitigate climate change

K G Austin  1 , J S Baker  2   3 , B L Sohngen  4 , C M Wade  2 , A Daigneault  5 , S B Ohrel  6 , S Ragnauth  6 , A Bean  2
Affiliations

The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world's forests to mitigate climate change

K G Austin et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5-$100/tCO2. We project 0.6-6.0 GtCO2 yr-1 in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2-393 billion USD yr-1, with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 30-54% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415-875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35-$100/tCO2, with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute ~10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO2 in 2055.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Global marginal abatement cost curves in the global forest sector.
We project mitigation quantities and costs across three time-horizons: 2035 (top), 2055 (middle), and 2075 (bottom), under six starting prices and two growth rate assumptions.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Projected annual mitigation across biome, by mitigation activity (avoided deforestation, forest management, re/afforestation, and changes in rotation lengths) at a starting carbon price of $50/tCO2 and under 1 and 3% growth scenarios.
In the temperate and boreal biomes, where forest loss is predominately due to forestry activities, we include carbon gains due to avoided forest in our measure of gains due to shifts in rotation length.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Projected annual GHG mitigation by country, across all forest sector abatement activities in 2055.
Mitigation is measured in MtCO2 yr−1 and is presented on a scale from grey (no mitigation potential) to red (largest mitigation potential).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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