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. 2021 Feb;28(2):1177-1195.
doi: 10.1016/j.sjbs.2020.11.067. Epub 2020 Nov 26.

An analytical study of the factors that influence COVID-19 spread

Kawther Aabed  1 , Maha M A Lashin  2   3
Affiliations

An analytical study of the factors that influence COVID-19 spread

Kawther Aabed et al. Saudi J Biol Sci. 2021 Feb.

Abstract

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health emergency. Seasonality is a long-recognized attribute of many viral infections of humans. Nevertheless, the relationship between environmental factors and the spread of infection, particularly for person-to-person communicable diseases, remains poorly understood. This study explores the relationship between environmental factors and the incidence of COVID-19 in 188 countries with reported COVID-19 cases as of April 13, 2020. Here we show that COVID-19 growth rates peaked in temperate zones in the Northern Hemisphere during the outbreak period, while they were lower in tropical zones. The relationships between COVID-19 and environmental factors were resistant to the potentially confounding effects of air pollution, sea level, and population. To prove the effect of those factors, study, and analysis of the prevalence of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, and China was undertaken. A fuzzy logic system was designed to predict the effects of that variables on the rate of viral spread of COVID-19.

Keywords: Air pollution; Altitude; COVID-19; Case study – Fuzzy logic system; Environmental factors; Population density; Temperature.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Italian regions (a), Regions of COVID-19 spread (b), Regions of death due to COVID-19 (c).
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Italian regions (a), Regions of COVID-19 spread (b), Regions of death due to COVID-19 (c).
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Italian regions (a), Regions of COVID-19 spread (b), Regions of death due to COVID-19 (c).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Relationship between CO2 level, sea level, latitude, and population and COVID-19 in Italy.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Spanish regions (a), Regions of COVID-19 spread (b), Regions of death due to COVID-19 (c).
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Spanish regions (a), Regions of COVID-19 spread (b), Regions of death due to COVID-19 (c).
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Spanish regions (a), Regions of COVID-19 spread (b), Regions of death due to COVID-19 (c).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Relationship between CO2 level, sea levelsea levelsea level, latitude, and population and COVID-19 in Spain.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Chinese regions (a), Regions of COVID-19 spread (b), Regions of death due to COVID-19 (c).
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Chinese regions (a), Regions of COVID-19 spread (b), Regions of death due to COVID-19 (c).
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Chinese regions (a), Regions of COVID-19 spread (b), Regions of death due to COVID-19 (c).
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Relationship between CO2 level, sea level, latitude, and population and COVID-19 in China.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Fuzzy logic architecture.
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
COVID-19 fuzzy logic system.
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
(a) COVID-19 fuzzy logic system, (b) input variables (in triangular membership function).
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
IF-THEN rules for the COVID-19 fuzzy logic system.
Fig. 11
Fig. 11
Output variable in triangular membership function.
Fig. 12
Fig. 12
Confirmed COVID-19 cases by date (April 13, 2020) based on data available at https://www.trackcorona.live/api (n = 20).
Fig. 13
Fig. 13
Confirmed COVID-19 cases by date (April 13, 2020) based on data available at https://www.trackcorona.live/api (n = 20).
Fig. 14
Fig. 14
Confirmed COVID-19 cases by date (April 13, 2020) based on data available at https://www.trackcorona.live/api (n = 20).
Fig. 15
Fig. 15
Confirmed COVID-19 cases by date (April 13, 2020) based on data available at https://www.trackcorona.live/api (n = 107).
Fig. 16
Fig. 16
Confirmed COVID-19 cases by date (April 13, 2020) based on data available at https://www.trackcorona.live/api) (n = 107).
Fig. 17
Fig. 17
. Output results of the COVID-19 fuzzy logic system.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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Further Reading

    1. Ansari A., 1998. The Basics of Fuzzy Logic: A Tutorial Review. Computer Education. Computer Education Group 88:5–9.
    1. Anzolin E, Amante A., 2020. “Coronavirus outbreak grows in northern Italy, 16 cases reported in one day“, Thomson Reuters. Archived from the original on 21 February 2020, Retrieved 21 February 2020.
    1. Coronavirus, dall 'Italia si spande in Europa. Conte: “Inaccettabili Limitazioni Agli Italiani”, Ma molti Paesi prendono misure. la Repubblica (in Italian). 2020-02-25. Retrieved 2020-02-25.
    1. Coronavirus, positivi due Italiani a Tenerife. Mille persone nell'hotel in quarantena. la Repubblica (in Italian). 2020-02-25. Retrieved 2020-02-25.
    1. Sanidad confirma el primer positivo por coronavirus en Valencia. Las Provincias (in Spanish). 2020-02-27. Retrieved 2020-02-27.

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