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[Preprint]. 2021 Jan 2:2020.11.27.20240051.
doi: 10.1101/2020.11.27.20240051.

The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States

Seyed M Moghadas  1 , Thomas N Vilches  2 , Kevin Zhang  3 , Chad R Wells  4 , Affan Shoukat  4 , Burton H Singer  5 , Lauren Ancel Meyers  6 , Kathleen M Neuzil  7 , Joanne M Langley  8 , Meagan C Fitzpatrick  7 , Alison P Galvani  4
Affiliations

The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States

Seyed M Moghadas et al. medRxiv. .

Update in

Abstract

Background: Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States (US).

Methods: We developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, while children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection, and specified 10% pre-existing population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current non-pharmaceutical interventions in the US.

Results: Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% CrI: 4.3% - 5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4% - 9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54-62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-ICU hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3% - 66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2% - 68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5% - 73.1%), respectively, across the same period.

Conclusions: Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; United States; outbreak simulation; pandemic; vaccines.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests. Dr. Joanne M. Langley reports that her institution has received funding for research studies from Sanofi Pasteur, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, Janssen and Pfizer. Dr. Joanne M. Langley also holds the CIHR-GSK Chair in Pediatric Vaccinology at Dalhousie University. Dr. Neuzil’s research center received funding for research studies from Pfizer. Other authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Schematic model diagram for infection dynamics and natural history of disease.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Overall and age-specific relative reduction of mean attack rates with vaccination, as compared to the outbreak scenario in the absence of vaccination, with 5% (blue), 10% (red), and 20% (green) levels of pre-existing immunity over 300 days. Panels (A) and (B) correspond, respectively, to scenarios with and without reduction of vaccine efficacy in comorbid individuals and the elderly.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Projected daily incidence of COVID-19 per 10,000 population with 5% (A), 10% (B), and 20% (C) levels of pre-existing immunity. Projected temporal attack rates with 5% (D), 10% (E), and 20% (F) levels of pre-existing immunity over 300 days. Vaccination started on day 0. Colored curves with vaccination correspond, respectively, to scenarios with (brown) and without (blue) reduction of vaccine efficacy in comorbid individuals and the elderly.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Projected total number of non-ICU hospitalizations (A), ICU hospitalizations (B), and deaths (C) per 10,000 populations with 5%, 10%, and 20% levels of pre-existing immunity over 300 days. Colored bars with vaccination correspond, respectively, to scenarios with (brown) and without (blue) reduction of vaccine efficacy in comorbid individuals and the elderly.
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