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. 2020 Dec 3;10(1):21001.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77970-7.

Characterizing the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Jordan up to 2050

Susanne F Awad  1   2   3 , Peijue Huangfu  4 , Soha R Dargham  5   6 , Kamel Ajlouni  7 , Anwar Batieha  8 , Yousef S Khader  8 , Julia A Critchley  4 , Laith J Abu-Raddad  9   10   11
Affiliations

Characterizing the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Jordan up to 2050

Susanne F Awad et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

We aimed to characterize the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Jordan between 1990-2050, and to forecast the T2DM-related costs. A recently-developed population-level T2DM mathematical model was adapted and applied to Jordan. The model was fitted to six population-based survey data collected between 1990 and 2017. T2DM prevalence was 14.0% in 1990, and projected to be 16.0% in 2020, and 20.6% in 2050. The total predicted number of T2DM cases were 218,326 (12,313 were new cases) in 1990, 702,326 (36,941 were new cases) in 2020, and 1.9 million (79,419 were new cases) in 2050. Out of Jordan's total health expenditure, 19.0% in 1990, 21.1% in 2020, and 25.2% in 2050 was forecasted to be spent on T2DM. The proportion of T2DM incident cases attributed to obesity was 55.6% in 1990, 59.5% in 2020, and 62.6% in 2050. Meanwhile, the combined contribution of smoking and physical inactivity hovered around 5% between 1990 and 2050. Jordan's T2DM epidemic is predicted to grow sizably in the next three decades, driven by population ageing and high and increasing obesity levels. The national strategy to prevent T2DM needs to be strengthened by focusing it on preventive interventions targeting T2DM and key risk factors.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Projected type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) epidemic in Jordan between 1990–2050 in those 20–79 years old. (A) Prevalence of T2DM. (B) Total number of people living with T2DM. (C) Annual number of new T2DM cases. (D) T2DM incidence rate.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Projected health expenditure for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Jordan, 1990–2050. The figure shows (A) expenditure assuming fixed annual per capita health expenditure between 2016 and 2050, (B) expenditure assuming increasing annual per capita health expenditure between 2016 and 2050 based on extrapolation of the increasing historical trend, and (C) proportion of Jordan’s total health expenditure that is spent on T2DM. The health expenditure directly attributed to T2DM out of Jordan’s total healthcare expenditure was calculated per the Jönsson’s approach. The annual per capita health expenditure in Jordan between 1995 and 2015 was provided by World Bank data.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Projections for the proportion of annual new type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) cases in Jordan that is attributed to each key T2DM-related risk factor, 1990–2050. The figure shows projected proportions of T2DM cases attributed to (A) obesity, (B) smoking, and (C) physical inactivity.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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