Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021 Jun 18;60(6):2896-2905.
doi: 10.1093/rheumatology/keaa733.

A clinical prediction model for estimating the risk of developing uveitis in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Joeri W van Straalen  1 , Gabriella Giancane  2   3 , Yasmine Amazrhar  1 , Nikolay Tzaribachev  4 , Calin Lazar  5 , Yosef Uziel  6   7 , Albena Telcharova-Mihaylovska  8 , Claudio A Len  9 , Angela Miniaci  10 , Alina L Boteanu  11 , Giovanni Filocamo  12 , Mariel V Mastri  13 , Thaschawee Arkachaisri  14   15 , Maria G Magnolia  16 , Esther Hoppenreijs  17 , Sytze de Roock  1 , Nico M Wulffraat  1 , Nicolino Ruperto  2 , Joost F Swart  1 ; Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation (PRINTO)
Affiliations

A clinical prediction model for estimating the risk of developing uveitis in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Joeri W van Straalen et al. Rheumatology (Oxford). .

Abstract

Objective: To build a prediction model for uveitis in children with JIA for use in current clinical practice.

Methods: Data from the international observational Pharmachild registry were used. Adjusted risk factors as well as predictors for JIA-associated uveitis (JIA-U) were determined using multivariable logistic regression models. The prediction model was selected based on the Akaike information criterion. Bootstrap resampling was used to adjust the final prediction model for optimism.

Results: JIA-U occurred in 1102 of 5529 JIA patients (19.9%). The majority of patients that developed JIA-U were female (74.1%), ANA positive (66.0%) and had oligoarthritis (59.9%). JIA-U was rarely seen in patients with systemic arthritis (0.5%) and RF positive polyarthritis (0.2%). Independent risk factors for JIA-U were ANA positivity [odds ratio (OR): 1.88 (95% CI: 1.54, 2.30)] and HLA-B27 positivity [OR: 1.48 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.95)] while older age at JIA onset was an independent protective factor [OR: 0.84 (9%% CI: 0.81, 0.87)]. On multivariable analysis, the combination of age at JIA onset [OR: 0.84 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.86)], JIA category and ANA positivity [OR: 2.02 (95% CI: 1.73, 2.36)] had the highest discriminative power among the prediction models considered (optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.75).

Conclusion: We developed an easy to read model for individual patients with JIA to inform patients/parents on the probability of developing uveitis.

Keywords: JIA; confounders; prediction model; risk factors; uveitis.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

<sc>Fig</sc>. 1
Fig. 1
Flowchart of study population
<sc>Fig</sc>. 2
Fig. 2
Cumulative juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis (JIA-U) onset rate (n = 138)
<sc>Fig</sc>. 3
Fig. 3
Diagram of optimism-adjusted clinical prediction model for juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis (JIA-U) First, distinguish between ANA positive and negative patients (left or right side of the diagram). Then, pick a line corresponding to the JIA category (see legend), and finally, read off the predicted probability for JIA-U (y-axis) as a function of the age at JIA onset (x-axis).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Prakken B, Albani S, Martini A.. Juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Lancet 2011;377:2138–49. - PubMed
    1. Petty RE, Southwood TR, Manners P. et al. International League of Associations for Rheumatology classification of juvenile idiopathic arthritis: second revision, Edmonton, 2001. J Rheumatol 2004;31:390–2. - PubMed
    1. Ravelli A, Martini A.. Juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Lancet 2007;369:767–78. - PubMed
    1. Thierry S, Fautrel B, Lemelle I, Guillemin F.. Prevalence and incidence of juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a systematic review. Jt Bone Spine 2014;81:112–7. - PubMed
    1. Palman J, Shoop-Worrall S, Hyrich K, McDonagh JE.. Update on the epidemiology, risk factors and disease outcomes of Juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Best Pract Res Clin Rheumatol 2018;32:206–22. - PubMed

Publication types