Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021 Mar;15(2):209-217.
doi: 10.1111/irv.12816. Epub 2020 Oct 14.

Differential COVID-19 case positivity in New York City neighborhoods: Socioeconomic factors and mobility

Matthew R Lamb  1   2 , Sasikiran Kandula  3 , Jeffrey Shaman  3
Affiliations

Differential COVID-19 case positivity in New York City neighborhoods: Socioeconomic factors and mobility

Matthew R Lamb et al. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2021 Mar.

Abstract

Background: New York City (NYC) has been one of the hotspots of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. By the end of April 2020, close to 165 000 cases and 13 000 deaths were reported in the city with considerable variability across the city's ZIP codes.

Objectives: In this study, we examine: (a) the extent to which the variability in ZIP code-level case positivity can be explained by aggregate markers of socioeconomic status (SES) and daily change in mobility; and (b) the extent to which daily change in mobility independently predicts case positivity.

Methods: COVID-19 case positivity by ZIP code was modeled using multivariable linear regression with generalized estimating equations to account for within-ZIP clustering. Daily case positivity was obtained from NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and measures of SES were based on data from the American Community Survey. Changes in human mobility were estimated using anonymized aggregated mobile phone location systems.

Results: Our analysis indicates that the socioeconomic markers considered together explained 56% of the variability in case positivity through April 1 and their explanatory power decreased to 18% by April 30. Changes in mobility during this time period are not likely to be acting as a mediator of the relationship between ZIP-level SES and case positivity. During the middle of April, increases in mobility were independently associated with decreased case positivity.

Conclusions: Together, these findings present evidence that heterogeneity in COVID-19 case positivity during NYC's spring outbreak was largely driven by residents' SES.

Keywords: COVID-19; generalized estimating equations; mobility; socioeconomic status.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

JS and Columbia University disclose partial ownership of SK Analytics. JS discloses consulting for BNI.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Maps of six explanatory variables used in this study as measured of SES characteristics of ZIP codes
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Change in mobility by date. The bounded area represents the distribution of change in mobility across ZIP codes. The median and interquartile range are shown in red
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Update of

References

    1. New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene . COVID‐19 Data archive; 2020. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid‐19‐data‐archive.page. Accessed May 6, 2020.
    1. WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID‐19) Dashboard; 2020. https://covid19.who.int/. Accessed May 10, 2020.
    1. New York City Department of Mental health and Hygiene . COVID‐19 Tests by ZIP code; 2020. https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid‐19‐cases‐by‐zip‐.... Accessed May 10, 2020.
    1. United States Census Bureau . QuickFacts. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/newyorkcountymanhattanborou.... Accessed May 10, 2020.
    1. Wadhera RK, Wadhera P, Gaba P, et al. Variation in COVID‐19 hospitalizations and deaths across New York City boroughs. JAMA. 2020;323:2192. - PMC - PubMed

Publication types