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. 2020 Aug;119(2):222-235.
doi: 10.1097/HP.0000000000001206.

Uncertainties in Radiation Doses for a Case-control Study of Thyroid Cancer among Persons Exposed in Childhood to 131 I from Chernobyl Fallout

Vladimir Drozdovitch  1 , Ausrele Kesminiene  2 , Monika Moissonnier  2 , Ilya Veyalkin  3 , Evgenia Ostroumova  2
Affiliations

Uncertainties in Radiation Doses for a Case-control Study of Thyroid Cancer among Persons Exposed in Childhood to 131 I from Chernobyl Fallout

Vladimir Drozdovitch et al. Health Phys. 2020 Aug.

Abstract

Uncertainties in thyroid doses due to I intake were evaluated for 2,239 subjects in a case-control study of thyroid cancer following exposure to Chernobyl fallout during childhood and adolescence carried out in contaminated regions of Belarus and Russia. Using new methodological developments that became available recently, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure was applied to calculate 1,000 alternative vectors of thyroid doses due to I intake for the study population of 2,239 subjects accounting for sources of shared and unshared errors. An overall arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses in the study was estimated to be 0.43 Gy and median dose of 0.16 Gy. The arithmetic mean and median of deterministic doses estimated previously for 1,615 of 2,239 study subjects were 0.48 Gy and 0.20 Gy, respectively. The geometric standard deviation of individual stochastic doses varied from 1.59 to 3.61 with an arithmetic mean of 1.94 and a geometric mean of 1.89 over all subjects of the study. These multiple sets of thyroid doses were used to update radiation-related thyroid cancer risks in the study population exposed to I after the Chernobyl accident.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Scheme of calculation of stochastic doses for the study population with account of shared and unshared errors.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Subject-specific uncertainty (geometric standard deviation [GSD]) of individual stochastic doses as a function of geometric mean of 1,000 individual stochastic doses.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Comparison of thyroid doses due to 131I intake estimated in TD04 (as deterministic) and TD16 (as arithmetic mean of 1,000 individual stochastic doses) for 1,615 study subjects.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Cumulative percentage of 1,000 alternative dose vectors for the study population.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.
Comparison of individual thyroid doses due to 131I intake for 64 study subjects assessed by the model with instrumental doses derived from direct thyroid measurements. Dashed lines show factor of 3 difference between two sets of doses.
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References

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