Modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A comprehensive guide of infectious disease and decision-analytic models

Stephen Mac¹, Sharmistha Mishra², Raphael Ximenes³, Kali Barrett⁴, Yasin A Khan⁴, David M J Naimark⁵, Beate Sander⁶

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
² Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.
³ Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
⁴ Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
⁵ Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada.
⁶ Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; Public Health Ontario, Toronto, Canada; ICES, Toronto, Canada. Electronic address: beate.sander@uhnresearch.ca.

PMID: 33301904
PMCID: PMC7837043
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.12.002

Review

Modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A comprehensive guide of infectious disease and decision-analytic models

Stephen Mac et al. J Clin Epidemiol. 2021 Apr.

. 2021 Apr:132:133-141.

doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.12.002. Epub 2020 Dec 7.

Authors

Stephen Mac¹, Sharmistha Mishra², Raphael Ximenes³, Kali Barrett⁴, Yasin A Khan⁴, David M J Naimark⁵, Beate Sander⁶

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
² Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.
³ Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
⁴ Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
⁵ Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada.
⁶ Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; Public Health Ontario, Toronto, Canada; ICES, Toronto, Canada. Electronic address: beate.sander@uhnresearch.ca.

PMID: 33301904
PMCID: PMC7837043
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.12.002

No abstract available

Keywords: COVID-19; Decision analysis; Infectious disease; Modeling; Simulation.

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Figures

**Fig. 1**
Conceptualizing a health system model for pandemic planning.

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References

1. Jefferson T., Heneghan C. Modelling the models. Cent Evid Based Med. 2020 https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/modelling-the-models/ Available at.
1. Barrett K., Khan Y.A., Mac S., Ximenes R., Naimark D.M.J., Sander B. Estimation of COVID-19–induced depletion of hospital resources in Ontario, Canada. Can Med Assoc J. 2020;192:E640–E646. - PMC - PubMed
1. Pitman R., Fisman D., Zaric G.S., Postma M., Kretzschmar M., Edmunds J. Dynamic transmission modeling: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM modeling good research practices task force working group-5. Med Decis Mak. 2012;32:712–721. - PubMed
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1. Mishra S., Fisman D.N., Boily M.C. The ABC of terms used in mathematical models of infectious diseases. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2011;65:87–94. - PubMed

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Modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A comprehensive guide of infectious disease and decision-analytic models

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Modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A comprehensive guide of infectious disease and decision-analytic models

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