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. 2020 Dec 4;10(12):125210.
doi: 10.1063/5.0029698. eCollection 2020 Dec.

A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia

Hamdy M Youssef  1 , Najat A Alghamdi  2 , Magdy A Ezzat  3 , Alaa A El-Bary  4 , Ahmed M Shawky  5
Affiliations

A modified SEIR model applied to the data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia

Hamdy M Youssef et al. AIP Adv. .

Abstract

The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is an established and appropriate approach in many countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. We wished to create a new COVID-19 model to be suitable for patients in any country. In this work, a modified SEIR model was constructed. We used the real data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia for statistical analyses and complex analyses. The reproduction number and detailed review of stability demonstrated the complexities of our proposed SEIR model. The solution and equilibrium condition were explored based on Jacobian's linearization approach to the proposed SEIR model. The state of equilibrium was demonstrated, and a stability study was conducted in the disease-free environment. The reproduction number was measured sensitively against its internal parameters. Using the Lyapunov principle of equilibrium, the overall consistency of balance of our model was demonstrated. Findings using the SEIR model and observed outcomes due to COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia were compared. The modified SEIR model could enable successful analyses of the spread of epidemics such as COVID-19. An "ideal protocol" comprised essential steps to help Saudi Arabia decelerate COVID-19 spread. The most important aspects are to stay at home as much as possible and for infected people to remain in an isolated zone or secure area.

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Figures

FIG. 1.
FIG. 1.
Flowchart of the proposed SEIR model.
FIG. 2.
FIG. 2.
Number of daily infections in Saudi Arabia between 1 April and 5 August 2020.
FIG. 3.
FIG. 3.
Total number of infections in Saudi Arabia between 1 April and 5 August 2020.
FIG. 4.
FIG. 4.
Number of daily infections based on the SEIR model against the real data in Saudi Arabia between 1 April and 5 August 2020.
FIG. 5.
FIG. 5.
Total number of infections based on the SEIR model against the real data in Saudi Arabia between 1 April and 5 August 2020.
FIG. 6.
FIG. 6.
Number of daily infections based on the SEIR model in Saudi Arabia between 18 June and 4 October 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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