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. 2020 Dec 10;17(24):9219.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph17249219.

Short-Term Effects of Atmospheric Pollution on Daily Mortality and Their Modification by Increased Temperatures Associated with a Climatic Change Scenario in Northern Mexico

Rosa María Cerón Bretón  1 , Julia Griselda Cerón Bretón  1 , Jonathan W D Kahl  2 , María de la Luz Espinosa Fuentes  3 , Evangelina Ramírez Lara  4 , Marcela Rangel Marrón  1 , Reyna Del Carmen Lara Severino  1 , Martha Patricia Uc Chi  1
Affiliations

Short-Term Effects of Atmospheric Pollution on Daily Mortality and Their Modification by Increased Temperatures Associated with a Climatic Change Scenario in Northern Mexico

Rosa María Cerón Bretón et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Short-term effects of air pollution on the health of residents in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey, Mexico were assessed from 2012-2015 using a time-series approach. Guadalupe had the highest mean concentrations for SO2, CO and O3; whereas Santa Catarina showed the highest NO2 concentrations. Escobedo and Garcia registered the highest levels for PM10. Only PM10 and O3 exceeded the maximum permissible values established in the Mexican official standards. Most of pollutants and municipalities showed a great number of associations between an increase of 10% in their current concentrations and mortality, especially for people >60 years. Different scenarios resulting from climatic change were built (increases of 5-25% in daily mean temperature), but only the increase of 25% (5 °C) showed a significant association with air pollutant concentrations and mortality. All pollutants and municipalities showed significant increases in relative risk indexes (RRI) resulting from an increase of 5 °C when people >60 years was considered. Results were comparable to those reported by other authors around the world. The RRI were low but significant, and thus are of public concern. This study demonstrated that the elderly is strongly threatened not only by atmospheric pollution but also by climatic change scenarios in warm and semiarid places.

Keywords: Mexico; Monterrey; criteria air pollutants; mortality; relative risk index.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Location of municipalities in MAM.
Figure 2
Figure 2
(a) Relative contribution to total Mortality, (b) Deaths percentage by gender and by age group, by all causes, (c) Deaths percentage by gender and by age group, by respiratory causes, (d) Deaths percentage by gender and by age group, by circulatory causes.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Map of mean concentrations for O3 and PM10 showing the exceedances.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Number of deaths and the percentage of risk of daily mortality by all causes as a result of an increase of 10% in mean daily concentration for SO2.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Number of deaths and the percentage of risk of daily mortality by all causes as a result of an increase of 10% in mean daily concentration for CO.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Number of deaths and the percentage of risk of daily mortality by all causes as a result of an increase of 10% in mean daily concentration for NO2.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Number of deaths and the percentage of risk of daily mortality by all causes as a result of an increase of 10% in mean daily concentration for O3.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Number of deaths and the percentage of risk of daily mortality by all causes as a result of an increase of 10% in mean daily concentration for PM10.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Comparison of RRI for daily mortality by an increase of 10% in SO2 concentrations. Not all cities had all the RRI values for each subplot.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Comparison of RRI for daily mortality by an increase of 10% in CO concentrations found in this study with those reported by other authors. Not all cities had all the RRI values for each subplot.
Figure 11
Figure 11
Comparison of RRI for daily mortality by an increase of 10% in NO2 concentrations found in this study with those reported by other authors. Not all cities had all the RRI values for each subplot.
Figure 12
Figure 12
Comparison of RRI for daily mortality by an increase of 10% in O3 concentrations. Not all cities had all the RRI values for each subplot.
Figure 13
Figure 13
Comparison of RRI for daily mortality by an increase of 10% in PM10 concentrations found in this study with those reported by other authors. Not all cities had all the RRI values for each subplot.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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