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. 2020 Nov-Dec;138(6):554-560.
doi: 10.1590/1516-3180.2020.0111.R1.24092020.

Incidence and spatial distribution of cases of dengue, from 2010 to 2019: an ecological study

Petrúcio Luiz Lins de Morais  1 , Priscila Mayrelle Silva Castanha  2 , Ulisses Ramos Montarroyos  3
Affiliations

Incidence and spatial distribution of cases of dengue, from 2010 to 2019: an ecological study

Petrúcio Luiz Lins de Morais et al. Sao Paulo Med J. 2020 Nov-Dec.

Abstract

Background: Dengue is an arbovirus that has caused serious problem in Brazil, putting the public health system under severe stress. Understanding its incidence and spatial distribution is essential for disease control and prevention.

Objective: To perform an analysis on dengue incidence and spatial distribution in a medium-sized, cool-climate and high-altitude city.

Design and setting: Ecological study carried out in a public institution in the city of Garanhuns, Pernambuco, Brazil.

Methods: Secondary data provided by specific agencies in each area were used for spatial analysis and elaboration of kernel maps, incidence calculations, correlations and percentages of dengue occurrence. The Geocentric Reference System for the Americas (Sistema de Referência Geocêntrico para as Américas, SIRGAS), 2000, was the software of choice.

Results: The incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 inhabitants. Between 2010 and 2019, there were 6,504 cases and the incidence was 474.92. From 2010 to 2014, the incidence was 161.46 for a total of 1,069 cases. The highest incidence occurred in the period from 2015 to 2019: out of a total of 5,435 cases, the incidence was 748.65, representing an increase of 485.97%. Population density and the interaction between two climatic factors, i.e. atypical temperature above 31 °C and relative humidity above 31.4%, contributed to the peak incidence of dengue, although these variables were not statistically significant (P > 0.05).

Conclusion: The dengue incidence levels and spatial distribution reflected virus and vector adjustment to the local climate. However, there was no correlation between climatic factors and occurrences of dengue in this city.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of interest: None

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Spatial distribution of dengue cases in the municipality of Garanhuns, state of Pernambuco, in 2012, highlighting the neighborhoods of São José, Santo Antônio, Aluísio Pinto, Heliópolis, Severiano Morais and Francisco Simão, The year 2012 was the year with the highest incidence over the five-year period from 2010 to 2014.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Spatial distribution of dengue cases in the municipality of Garanhuns, state of Pernambuco, in 2016, highlighting the neighborhoods of São José, Santo Antônio, Aluísio Pinto, Heliópolis, Severiano Morais and Boa Vista, The year 2016 was the year with the highest incidence over the five-year period from 2015 to 2019.
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