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. 2020 Dec 17;20(1):960.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05561-y.

Novel risk scoring system for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

Mengyuan Liang  1 , Miao He  1 , Jian Tang  1 , Xinliang He  1 , Zhijun Liu  2 , Siwei Feng  1 , Ping Chen  1 , Hui Li  1 , Yu'e Xue  1 , Tao Bai  3 , Yanling Ma  4 , Jianchu Zhang  5
Affiliations

Novel risk scoring system for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

Mengyuan Liang et al. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: The mortality rate from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is high among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hence, risk evaluation tools are required to immediately identify high-risk patients upon admission for early intervention.

Methods: A cohort of 220 consecutive patients with COVID-19 were included in this study. To analyze the risk factors of ARDS, data obtained from approximately 70% of the participants were randomly selected and used as training dataset to establish a logistic regression model. Meanwhile, data obtained from the remaining 30% of the participants were used as test dataset to validate the effect of the model.

Results: Lactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen, D-dimer, procalcitonin, and ferritin levels were included in the risk score system and were assigned a score of 25, 15, 34, 20, and 24, respectively. The cutoff value for the total score was > 35, with a sensitivity of 100.00% and specificity of 81.20%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were 0.967 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.925-0.989) and 0.437(P Value = 0.437). The model had excellent discrimination and calibration during internal validation.

Conclusions: The novel risk score may be a valuable risk evaluation tool for screening patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of ARDS.

Keywords: ARDS; COVID-19; Risk score.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declared no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
ROC curve of the risk score for predicting ARDS
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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