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. 2021 Feb 22;39(8):1201-1204.
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.11.074. Epub 2020 Dec 9.

Potential impact of COVID-19 pandemic on vaccination coverage in children: A case study of measles-containing vaccine administration in the United States (US)

Cristina Carias  1 , Manjiri Pawaskar  2 , Mawuli Nyaku  2 , James H Conway  3 , Craig S Roberts  2 , Lyn Finelli  2 , Ya-Ting Chen  2
Affiliations

Potential impact of COVID-19 pandemic on vaccination coverage in children: A case study of measles-containing vaccine administration in the United States (US)

Cristina Carias et al. Vaccine. .

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home orders have caused an unprecedented decrease in the administration of routinely recommended vaccines. However, the impact of this decrease on overall vaccination coverage in a specific birth cohort is not known.

Methods: We projected measles vaccination coverage for the cohort of children becoming one year old in 2020 in the United States, for different durations of stay-at-home orders, along with varying catch-up vaccination efforts.

Results: A 15% sustained catch-up rate outside stay-at-home orders (compared to what would be expected via natality information) may be necessary to achieve projected vaccination coverage similar to previous years. Permanent decreases in vaccine administration could lead to projected vaccination coverage levels below 80%.

Conclusion: Modeling measles vaccination coverage under a range of scenarios provides useful information about the potential magnitude and impact of under-immunization. Sustained catch-up efforts are needed to assure that measles vaccination coverage remains high.

Keywords: Covid-19; Immunization impact; Measles vaccination coverage.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Competing Interest CC, MP, MN, CR, LF, and YTC are employees and shareholders of Merck & Co. JHC reports personal fees from Merck Vaccines, grants from Sanofi Pasteur Vaccines, personal fees from GSK vaccines, personal fees from Pfizer vaccines.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Projected 2020 measles-containing vaccination coverage rates (VCR) in the US as a function of the relative difference between infants eligible for the 12-month visit and infants that attend and get vaccinated for different duration of stay-at-home orders (SAHO). Projected vaccine coverage calculated for infants born in 2019 turning 1 year old in 2020; estimated as the ratio between total doses administered and total infants eligible to attend the 12-month well-check and that get vaccinated. Different lines correspond to different duration and number of stay-at-home orders; the point estimate was estimated assuming a 50% reduction in the infants that attend well-visits while SAHO are in place, while the error bars consider a 40% and 60% reduction . The x-axis corresponds to the difference between infants eligible to attend the 12 month well-visit and infants that attend; a negative difference corresponds to reduction in attendance related to permanent social distancing behaviors, while a positive difference corresponds to a proactive catch-up of individuals that missed their 12 month well-check.
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References

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