Ten Epidemiological Parameters of COVID-19: Use of Rapid Literature Review to Inform Predictive Models During the Pandemic

Abstract

Objective: To describe the methods used in a rapid review of the literature and to present the main epidemiological parameters that describe the transmission of SARS-Cov-2 and the illness caused by this virus, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods: This is a methodological protocol that enabled a rapid review of COVID-19 epidemiological parameters. Findings: The protocol consisted of the following steps: definition of scope; eligibility criteria; information sources; search strategies; selection of studies; and data extraction. Four reviewers and three supervisors conducted this review in 40 days. Of the 1,266 studies found, 65 were included, mostly observational and descriptive in content, indicating relative homogeneity as to the quality of the evidence. The variation in the basic reproduction number, between 0.48 and 14.8; and the median of the hospitalization period, between 7.5 and 20.5 days stand out as key findings. Conclusion: We identified and synthesized 10 epidemiological parameters that may support predictive models and other rapid reviews to inform modeling of this and other future public health emergencies.

Keywords: coronavirus infections; methods; models; parameters; review; statistical.

Figure 1

Flowchart of the selection process of evidence of clinical and epidemiological parameters of COVID-19. a, First group of parameters (syntax group 1); b, Second group of parameters (syntax group 2); c, articles published as pre-prints; d, article in non-English, Spanish, or Portuguese and the parameter data was not included in the abstract; e, it was not possible to extract the parameters of interest; f, did not provide data on COVID-19; g, Laboratory studies or other techniques.