Response to COVID-19 in Cyprus: Policy changes and epidemic trends

Abstract

Objectives: In late July, Cyprus experienced the second epidemic wave of COVID-19. We present the steps taken by the government and evaluate their effect on epidemic trends.

Materials: Cyprus Press and Information Office data were analysed. Using an R-based forecasting program, two models were created to predict cases up to 01/09/2020: Model 1, which utilised data up to 09/06/2020, when airports reopened to foreign travelers with COVID-19 screening; and Model 2, which utilised data until 24/06/2020, when screening for passengers from low-transmission countries was discontinued.

Results: PIO data revealed no significant policy changes between 24/06/2020 and 31/07/2020. Prediction models were robust and accurate (Model 1, R² = 0.999, P < .001; Model 2, R² = 0.998, P < .001). By August 30th, recorded cases exceeded those predicted by Model 1 by 24.47% and by Model 2 by 20.95%, with P values <.001 for both cases.

Conclusions: The significant difference between recorded cases and those projected by Models 1 and 2 suggests that changes in epidemic trends may have been associated with policy changes after their respective dates. Discontinuation of major restrictions such as airport reopening, can destabilise the control of the epidemic, and may concomitantly necessitate a reevaluation of the current epidemic status. In the face of an evolving situation such as the COVID-19 pandemic, states are forced to balance the imposing of restrictions against their impact on the economy.

FIGURE 1

Timeline of Cyprus government policy changes in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Data taken from the Cyprus Press and Information Office (PIO) and the Cyprus Official Government Gazette

FIGURE 2

Timeline of daily new COVID‐19 cases and tests, as well as numbers of patients hospitalised in general wards and intensive care units in Cyprus, from the date of the first reported cases in Cyprus (March 16th) until September 1st

FIGURE 3

Graph depicting the recorded COVID‐19 cumulative incidence in Cyprus until September 1st, along with predictions based on data until June 9th (Model 1) and June 24th (Model 2)