Global Trends in Antimicrobial Use in Food Animals from 2017 to 2030

Abstract

Demand for animal protein is rising globally and has been facilitated by the expansion of intensive farming. However, intensive animal production relies on the regular use of antimicrobials to maintain health and productivity on farms. The routine use of antimicrobials fuels the development of antimicrobial resistance, a growing threat for the health of humans and animals. Monitoring global trends in antimicrobial use is essential to track progress associated with antimicrobial stewardship efforts across regions. We collected antimicrobial sales data for chicken, cattle, and pig systems in 41 countries in 2017 and projected global antimicrobial consumption from 2017 to 2030. We used multivariate regression models and estimated global antimicrobial sales in 2017 at 93,309 tonnes (95% CI: 64,443, 149,886). Globally, sales are expected to rise by 11.5% in 2030 to 104,079 tonnes (95% CI: 69,062, 172,711). All continents are expected to increase their antimicrobial use. Our results show lower global antimicrobial sales in 2030 compared to previous estimates, owing to recent reports of decrease in antimicrobial use, in particular in China, the world's largest consumer. Countries exporting a large proportion of their production are more likely to report their antimicrobial sales data than countries with small export markets.

Keywords: animal products; antibiotics; exports; livestock; sales.

Figure 1

Antimicrobial consumption per country in 2017 and 2030. The size of the circles corresponds to the amounts of antimicrobials used. Dark red circles correspond to the amounts used in 2017, and the outer blue ring corresponds to the projected increase in consumption in 2030.

Figure 2

The top 10 consumers of veterinary antimicrobials by country in 2017 (open bars) and their projected consumption for 2030 (closed bars). CHN, China; BR, Brazil; USA, United States; THA, Thailand; IND, India; IRN, Iran; ESP, Spain; RUS, Russia; MEX, Mexico; ARG, Argentina.

Figure 3

(A) Tonnes of cattle exports per cattle population in 2017 in countries reporting antimicrobial consumption (blue) vs. countries that did not report antimicrobial consumption (green); (B) Tonnes of chicken exports per chicken population in 2017 in countries reporting antimicrobial consumption (blue) vs. countries that did not report antimicrobial consumption (green); (C) Tonnes of pig exports per cattle population in 2017 in countries reporting antimicrobial consumption (blue) vs. countries that did not report antimicrobial consumption (green); (D) Meat consumption per capita (in kg) for countries that did and did not report veterinary antimicrobial sales data in 2017. Labels on all boxplots refer to the country’s ISO3 country codes. Size of the ISO3 code is proportional to the amounts of antimicrobials that each country was estimated to use in 2017.