Minor or adult? Introducing decision analysis in forensic age estimation

Abstract

Nowadays, forensic age estimation takes an important role in worldwide forensic and medico-legal institutes that are solicited by judicial or administrative authorities for providing an expert report on the age of individuals. The authorities' ultimate issue of interest is often the probability that the person is younger or older than a given age threshold, which is usually the age of majority. Such information is fundamental for deciding whether a person being judged falls under the legal category of an adult. This is a decision that may have important consequences for the individual, depending on the legal framework in which the decision is made. The aim of this paper is to introduce a normative approach for assisting the authority in the decision-making process given knowledge from available findings reported by means of probabilities. The normative approach proposed here has been acknowledged in the forensic framework, and represents a promising structure for reasoning that can support the decision-making process in forensic age estimation. The paper introduces the fundamental elements of decision theory applied to the specific case of age estimation, and provides some examples to illustrate its practical application.

Keywords: Bayesian decision theory; Chronological age; Decision consequences; Evidence evaluation; Evidence interpretation; Loss function.