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. 2020 Dec 10:8:578438.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.578438. eCollection 2020.

Potential Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Future Birth Rate

Md Asad Ullah  1 , Abu Tayab Moin  2 , Yusha Araf  3 , Atiqur Rahman Bhuiyan  4 , Mark D Griffiths  5 , David Gozal  6
Affiliations

Potential Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Future Birth Rate

Md Asad Ullah et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Here, we examine the potential effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on future birth rates. This highly contagious disease originated in China, and rapidly spread worldwide, leading to extensive lockdown policies being implemented globally with the aim of containing the infection rates and its serious attendant consequences. Based on previous extant literature, this paper overviews the potential demographic consequences of the current progressively widespread epidemic on conception and fertility as driven by the data obtained during similar prior incidents. In general, epidemics manifest a common pattern as far as their impact on population, which is remarkably similar to natural disasters, i.e., a steep decline in birth rates followed by gradual increases and then followed by a baby boom. Additionally, we have also depicted how economic conditions, mental health, fear, and mortality may also influence future birth rates.

Keywords: COVID-19; birth rate; demography; fertility; pandemic.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Change in birth-rate in months after the start of three recent epidemics, namely SARS, Zika, and Ebola (Source: The Economist; Institute for Family Studies).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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