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. 2020 Dec 11:8:598215.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.598215. eCollection 2020.

The Current Situation and Future Trend of Leukemia Mortality by Sex and Area in China

Baojing Li  1   2 , Hong Tang  1   2 , Zilu Cheng  3 , Yuxiao Zhang  1   2 , Hao Xiang  1   2
Affiliations

The Current Situation and Future Trend of Leukemia Mortality by Sex and Area in China

Baojing Li et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Leukemia is one of the most common cancers. We conducted this study to comprehensively analyze the temporal trends of leukemia mortality during 2003-2017 and project the trends until 2030. We extracted national-level data on annual leukemia mortality from China Health Statistics Yearbooks (2003-2017). We applied the Joinpoint regression model to assess leukemia mortality trends in urban and rural China by sex during 2003-2017. We also produced sex-specific leukemia mortality using the adjusted Global Burden Disease (GBD) 2016 projection model. In urban areas, age-standardized leukemia mortality decreased significantly among females during 2003-2017 (APC = -0.9%; 95% CI: -1.7, -0.1%). In rural areas, significant decreases of age-standardized leukemia mortality were both found among males (APC = -1.7%; 95% CI: -2.9, -0.5%) and females (APC = -1.6%; 95% CI: -2.6, -0.7%) from 2008 to 2017. Rural-urban and sex disparities of leukemia mortality will continue to exist until the year 2030. According to projection, the leukemia mortality rates of males and rural populations are higher than that of females and urban populations. In 2030, leukemia mortality is projected to decrease to 3.03/100,000 and 3.33/100,000 among the males in urban and rural areas, respectively. In females, leukemia mortality will decrease to 1.87/100,000 and 2.26/100,000 among urban and rural areas, respectively. Our study suggests that more precautionary measures to reduce leukemia mortality are need, and more attention should be paid to rural residents and males in primary prevention of leukemia in China.

Keywords: SDGs; joinpoint analysis; leukemia; mortality; projection.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age-standardized leukemia mortality (/100,000) in Chinese populations among urban (A) and rural areas (B) from 2003 to 2017. The scattered data points represent the leukemia mortality. The trend lines were estimate d by modeling leukemia mortality from Joinpoint analysis.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The projected leukemia mortality (/100,000) in the males and females among urban (A) and rural areas (B) from 2017 to 2030.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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