Early emergency readmission frequency as an indicator of short-, medium- and long-term mortality post-discharge from hospital

Abstract

Frequent emergency readmissions, an indicator of quality of care, has been rising in England but the underlying reasons remain unclear. We examined the association of early readmissions with subsequent mortality in adults, taking into account the underlying presenting diagnoses and hospital length of stay (LOS). Data of alive-discharge episodes were prospectively collected between 01/04/2017 and 31/03/2019 in an National Health Service hospital, comprising 32,270 patients (46.1% men) aged 18-107 years (mean = 64.0, ± SD = 20.5 years). The associations of readmission frequency within 28 days of discharge and mortality within 30 days and 6 months of hospital discharge, and over a 2-year period were evaluated, adjusted for presenting diagnoses, LOS, age and sex during the first admission. Analysis of all patients 18-107 years (reference: no readmission) showed mortality within 30 days was increased for 1 readmission: event rate = 9.2%, odds ratio (OR) = 3.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.9-4.0), and ≥ 2 readmissions: event rate = 10.0%, OR = 2.6 (95%CI = 2.0-3.3), and within 6 months for 1 readmission: event rate = 19.6%, OR = 3.0 (95%CI = 2.7-3.4), and ≥ 2 readmissions: event rate = 27.4%, OR = 3.4 (95%CI = 2.9-4.0), and over a 2-year period for 1 readmission: event rate = 25.5%, hazard ratio = 2.2 (95%CI = 2.0-2.4), and ≥ 2 readmissions: event rate = 36.1%, hazard ratio = 2.5 (95%CI = 2.2-2.8). Within the age groups 18-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and ≥ 80 years, readmissions were also associated with increased risk of mortality within 3 months and 6 months of discharge, and over 2-year period. In conclusion, early hospital readmission predicts short-, medium- and long-term mortality post-discharge from hospital in adults aged 18-107 years, independent of underlying presenting conditions, LOS, age and sex. Further research focussing on safe discharge and follow-up patient care may help reduce preventable readmissions and post-discharge mortality.

Keywords: Health economics; Healthcare services; Quality of care; Readmission prevention.

Fig. 1

Stacked bar charts showing rates of mortality within 30 days (a) and 6 months (b) of discharge from first admission, and over a 2-year period (c) according to readmission status in different age categories. Note: the numbers represent the rates of mortality within each category of readmission status

Fig. 2

Mortality rates within 30 days (a) and 6 months (b) of discharge from first admission, and over a 2-year period (c) according to admission frequency in different age categories. Denotes differences from “no readmission group”: p < 0.001

Fig. 3

Kaplan–Meier survival plot in patients with different frequency of readmissions. The table beneath the figure shows the number of at-risk patients at various time points for the three readmission frequency cohorts