Mortality Benefits and Control Costs of Improving Air Quality in Mexico City: The Case of Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles

Abstract

Diesel vehicles are significant contributors to air pollution in Mexico City. We estimate the costs and mortality benefits of retrofitting heavy-duty vehicles with particulate filters and oxidation catalysts. The feasibility and cost-effectiveness of controls differ by vehicle model-year and type. We evaluate 1985 to 2014 model-year vehicles from 10 vehicle classes and five model-year groups. Our analysis shows that retrofitting all vehicles with the control that maximizes expected net benefits for that vehicle type and model-year group has the potential to reduce emissions of primary fine particles (PM_2.5 ) by 950 metric tons/year; cut the population-weighted annual mean concentration of PM_2.5 in Mexico City by 0.90 µg/m³ ; reduce the annual number of deaths attributable to air pollution by over 80; and generate expected annual health benefits of close to 250 million US$. These benefits outweigh expected costs of 92 million US$ per year. Diesel retrofits are but one step that should viewed in the context of other efforts--such as development of an integrated public transportation system, promotion of the rational use of cars, reduction of emissions from industrial sources and fires, and redesign of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area to reduce urban sprawl--that must be analyzed and implemented to substantially control air pollution and protect public health. Even if considering other potential public health interventions, which would offer greater benefits at the same or lower costs, only by conducting, promoting, and publishing this sort of analyses, we can make strides to improve public health cost-effectively.

Keywords: Air pollution; health benefits; heavy-duty vehicles; particulate matter; retrofit technologies.

Fig 1

Benefit–cost heavy‐duty vehicle retrofit analysis diagram.

Fig 2

Mexico city's in use heavy‐duty fleet: baseline annual emissions of primary particles by vehicle type and model‐year group. Elaborated by authors with data from Mexico City's Emissions Inventory, 2014 (SEDEMA, 2016).