[Dynamic Assessment of PM2.5 Health Damage Value in China from 2015 to 2018]

Abstract

With the development of industrialization and urbanization in China, there are many environmental problems especially air pollution, which has serious impacts on the sustainable development of economy, ecological environment and public health. Since 2013, a series of environmental protection laws and regulations, and industrial and energy policies have been successively implemented, including Action Plan for Air Pollution Control, and Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defense War etc. The air quality of the whole country has been improved. In order to evaluate the dynamic changes of environmental health benefits from air pollution control in China, this paper estimates the health effects and health economic losses caused by PM_2.5 pollution, and makes a comparative analysis among different regions and cities based on the data of 297 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2015 to 2018. The results show that, due to sharp decline of ρ(PM_2.5), the population exposed to ρ(PM_2.5)>35 μg·m^-3 decreased year by year, and the proportion of the total population decreased from 80.88% to 62.32%. The total number of all kinds of health endpoints decreased from 33.23 million to 15.91 million, health economic loss decreased from 1579.04 billion yuan to 838.42 billion yuan, the proportion of healthy economic loss in GDP dropped from 2.31% to 0.99%. Among the six regions, the index values of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and surrounding areas, and Chengyu areas have declined year by year. However, Fenwei Plain areas, Yangtze River Delta areas, Pearl River Delta areas, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River show a complex trend of increasing in some years and decreasing later. However, the situation of Fenwei Plain is still more serious than other areas, and the ρ(PM_2.5) is next to Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas. ρ(PM_2.5) of all 11 cities still exceed 35 μg·m^-3 in 2018. Compared with 2015, the number of early deaths decreased by 1500, but the total number of all kinds of health endpoints increased by 18900. The health economic loss is 80.711 billion yuan, an increase of 10.714 billion yuan than that in 2015. The proportion of health economic loss in GDP is 3.16%, which is 0.25% lower than that in 2015. The per capita health economic loss is 182.67 yuan higher than that in 2015. In terms of cities, from 2015 to 2018, ρ(PM_2.5) in 228 cities decreased with varying degrees. Among which, Dezhou and Baoding dropped the most, only 10 cities saw ρ(PM_2.5) rise. 14 cities saw an increase in the number of healthy endpoints, and 11 cities saw an increase in the proportion of healthy economic loss to GDP. Although the index values of Baoding, Xingtai, Handan, and other cities have declined year by year, they still rank top 10 every year. The index value of Xi'an, Xianyang, Linfen, and other cities in 2018 is more than that in 2015. The research shows that the environmental health benefits of air pollution control are significant in China, but it is still necessary to further strengthen regional joint prevention and control, as well as one city one policy.

Keywords: China; PM2.5; dynamic value assessment; health damage; six regions.