Associations Between Simulated Future Changes in Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health

Abstract

Importance: Future changes in climate are likely to adversely affect human health by affecting concentrations of particulate matter sized less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in many areas. However, the degree to which these outcomes may be mitigated by reducing air pollutant emissions is not well understood.

Objective: To model the associations between future changes in climate, air quality, and human health for 2 climate models and under 2 air pollutant emission scenarios.

Design, setting, and participants: This modeling study simulated meteorological conditions over the coterminous continental US during a 1995 to 2005 baseline and over the 21st century (2025-2100) by dynamically downscaling representations of a high warming scenario from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Coupled Model version 3 (CM3) global climate models. Using a chemical transport model, PM2.5 and O3 concentrations were simulated under a 2011 air pollutant emission data set and a 2040 projection. The changes in PM2.5 and O3-attributable deaths associated with climate change among the US census-projected population were estimated for 2030, 2050, 2075, and 2095 for each of 2 emission inventories and climate models. Data were analyzed from June 2018 to June 2020.

Main outcomes and measures: The main outcomes were simulated change in summer season means of the maximum daily 8-hour mean O3, annual mean PM2.5, population-weighted exposure, and the number of avoided or incurred deaths associated with these pollutants. Results are reported for 2030, 2050, 2075, and 2095, compared with 2000, for 2 climate models and 2 air pollutant emissions data sets.

Results: The projected increased maximum daily temperatures through 2095 were up to 7.6 °C for the CESM model and 11.8 °C for the CM3 model. Under each climate model scenario by 2095, compared with 2000, an estimated additional 21 000 (95% CI, 14 000-28 000) PM2.5-attributable deaths and 4100 (95% CI, 2200-6000) O3-attributable deaths were projected to occur. These projections decreased to an estimated 15 000 (95% CI, 10 000-20 000) PM2.5-attributable deaths and 640 (95% CI, 340-940) O3-attributable deaths when simulated using a future emission inventory that accounted for reduced anthropogenic emissions.

Conclusions and relevance: These findings suggest that reducing future air pollutant emissions could also reduce the climate-driven increase in deaths associated with air pollution by hundreds to thousands.

Figure 1.. Estimated Premature Deaths Associated With Ozone Concentrations in 2095 per 100 000 Population

Estimated using 2011 and 2040 emissions inventories from Coupled Model version 3 (CM3) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) compared with a base year of 2000, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario.

Figure 2.. Estimated Premature Deaths Associated With Concentrations of Particulate Matter 2.5 μm and Smaller in 2095 per 100 000 Population

Estimated using 2011 and 2040 emissions inventories from Coupled Model version 3 (CM3) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) compared with a base year of 2000, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario.

Figure 3.. Estimated Deaths Associated With Particulate Matter Sized 2.5 μm and Smaller and Ozone Concentrations by Temperature

Estimated using 2011 and 2040 emissions inventories from Coupled Model version 3 (CM3) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) with Linear Fits.