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. 2021 Apr;174(4):568-570.
doi: 10.7326/M20-7866. Epub 2021 Jan 5.

Speed Versus Efficacy: Quantifying Potential Tradeoffs in COVID-19 Vaccine Deployment

A David Paltiel  1 , Amy Zheng  2 , Jason L Schwartz  1
Affiliations

Speed Versus Efficacy: Quantifying Potential Tradeoffs in COVID-19 Vaccine Deployment

A David Paltiel et al. Ann Intern Med. 2021 Apr.

Erratum in

No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

Disclosures: Disclosures can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M20-7866.

Figures

Figure.
Figure.. Comparison of vaccine performance.
The figures illustrate the performance of 4 vaccination strategies in 100 000 persons with 0.1% infected and 9000 recovered in a susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered model: 1) no vaccination (gray line); 2) a 95%-effective, 2-dose vaccine (orange line); 3) a single-dose vaccine conferring lifetime protection (blue line); and 4) a single-dose vaccine conferring an uncertain duration of protection that is exponentially distributed with a mean of 6 mo (yellow line). The vertical axes represent the outcome of interest (cumulative infections [top] and deaths [bottom]). The horizontal axes denote the efficacy of the single-dose vaccine. The crossing point of the blue line with the orange and yellow lines denotes the efficacy levels at which the 2 single-dose vaccines match the performance of the 95%-effective, 2-dose comparator.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

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    1. U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Development and licensure of vaccines to prevent COVID-19: guidance for industry. 30 June 2020. Accessed at www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/develop... on 16 December 2020.
    1. Corum J, Wee S, Zimmer C. Coronavirus vaccine tracker. New York Times. 2 December 2020. Accessed at www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html on 16 December 2020.
    1. Paltiel AD , Schwartz JL , Zheng A , et al. Clinical outcomes of a COVID-19 vaccine: implementation over efficacy. Health Aff (Millwood). 2020:101377hlthaff202002054. [PMID: ] doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.02054 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 pandemic planning scenarios. 10 September 2020. Accessed at www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html on 16 December 2020.

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